The timing, more than the message itself, emerges as the crucial element in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday evening. Netanyahu had been planning this move for an extended period, possibly since that pivotal evening when he reversed his previous attempt to dismiss the minister amid widespread street protests.
With the US elections reaching their peak, warfare on two fronts – Gaza and Lebanon – settling into a sustained pattern, and Iran yet to push Israel into another spiral of escalation (not to mention the internal Israeli political calculations), conditions aligned perfectly for this long-planned move. The significance of this November 5, 2024 timing cannot be overstated.
Netanyahu chose his moment while the US and particularly the White House remain absorbed in a tight election race, when attention to Israeli politics runs at its lowest ebb, and no dramatic intervention is likely as American politicians carefully navigate voter sensitivities.
As Donald Trump and Kamala Harris make their appearances at polling stations, and less than 12 hours after Secretary of State Antony Blinken's conversation with Gallant, Netanyahu executed his dismissal plan. While Gallant received no advance warning, Israel Katz spent an extensive day in close consultations with Netanyahu. This development reveals that the Defense Ministry shake-up serves dual purposes: removing the confrontational Gallant while simultaneously installing Netanyahu's confidant Katz instead of the next potential challenger, Gideon Sa'ar, who will become foreign minister rather than get the defense portfolio he covets.
The White House timing carries double significance: preventing immediate US pushback while presenting the next president and administration with an established fact at the Defense Ministry. Netanyahu positions Katz even before overseas vote counting concludes, anticipating Harris's potential victory.
As protesters block the Ayalon Highway South, the Democratic establishment may disapprove of Israel's new defense minister, but intervention becomes problematic once the signage outside the Defense Ministry headquarters in the Kirya changes. Even involvement in a friendly nation's internal politics observes certain boundaries.
What could have become Gallant's triumph – a successful management of two fronts and potentially earning Netanyahu's warm embrace – has now transformed into a double-edged sword. Between impending ceasefire agreements in Lebanon and hostage negotiations in Gaza, Netanyahu moves to neutralize someone who, in his view and according to tonight's statement, became a liability due to trust issues. Behind closed doors, their tensions centered primarily on managing the campaign against American pressure.
"The widening trust crisis between me and the defense minister has become public knowledge, and this crisis prevents proper management of the campaign," Netanyahu addressed the numerous headlines documenting their rift – hardly classified information requiring careful disclosure. He now positions Israel Katz beside him, a figure who has grown increasingly close during recent years, particularly throughout the current war.
Despite incorporating Sa'ar into his government and the Foreign Ministry, Netanyahu appears unwilling to risk another loyalty test in the defense minister position, preferring someone he expects to fully support his decisions.
The story concludes with a revealing detail – before the last elections, Netanyahu sought to place Gallant in the Defense Ministry to secure an ally against the defense establishment when the time came to strike Iran. However, experience showed that Gallant's primary loyalty lay with his ministry rather than the prime minister.
Iran remains the ultimate objective, and this time Netanyahu positions beside him someone he believes will execute when the moment arrives.
