The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the global benchmark for hunger monitoring, has signaled the emergence of "catastrophic" conditions in northern Gaza, warning that famine either exists or is imminent without immediate action. The critical alert, issued Saturday, comes as the US explicitly warns it might reconsider weapons deliveries if Israel fails to improve humanitarian conditions in northern Gaza.
The report describes northern Gaza's situation as an "emergency" with more than 130,000 people facing "catastrophic conditions regarding food access," noting that access to food and health services has plummeted since Israel resumed military operations in the area and ordered civilian evacuation, with aid supplies reportedly stranded in the Jabalia combat zone. The assessment also documents IDF operations' impact on medical and civilian infrastructure.
While the report references Coordinations of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) data indicating October saw the lowest aid delivery since the war began, COGAT officials contest these findings.
"Every IPC forecast has proven inconsistent with conditions on the ground"
"Every IPC forecast to date has proven inaccurate and inconsistent with conditions on the ground, with reports repeatedly predicting decline only to later document improvement. The researchers unfortunately rely on skewed, incomplete data and sources on the ground with narrow interests. These reports have systematically drawn from organizations with vested interests and partial, imprecise information, severely undermining their reliability. Israel has issued detailed documentation of factual and methodological flaws in previous reports, which remain unaddressed."
COGAT maintains there are no aid quantity restrictions and emphasizes the IDF's extensive efforts to facilitate aid delivery to combat zones. "IPC reports through October actually showed steady improvement in Gaza's food security. The latest report indicated that conditions as of early October, including in the north, were at their best since the war's onset."
"The IDF, via COGAT, regularly evaluates Gaza's humanitarian situation, including the north, drawing on multiple sources, including humanitarian organizations active in northern Gaza. We adjust and expand humanitarian response accordingly.
"Aid reaches northern Gaza directly through East and West Erez crossings, established in May specifically to support northern Gaza. The Erez crossings alone can process over 600 trucks weekly, with capacity for additional coordination, and no aid quantity limits exist. Since early October, northern Gaza has received more than 600 aid trucks, even as the IDF conducts intensive operations against terror organizations embedded within civilian areas.
"To minimize combat impact on remaining civilians, we issued advance evacuation notices southward, coordinated humanitarian team movements, evacuated hundreds of patients and medical staff from northern Gaza hospitals, and delivered hundreds of food, water, and medical supply packages. Over 50,000 liters of fuel and medical supplies reached northern Gaza medical facilities to sustain critical services. Last week, despite intensive operations in Jabalia and Beit Hanoun, Israel facilitated aid convoy coordination for civilians remaining in combat zones."
UNRWA Secretary-General Philippe Lazzarini issued a sharp rebuke to Israel following the alert: "This comes as no surprise. Famine is likely present in northern Gaza – a man-made famine. Israel is wielding starvation as a weapon," Lazzarini stated on social media.
The alert's timing coincides with explicit US warnings that failing to improve northern Gaza's humanitarian conditions could affect weapons supplies to Israel. Reports last week indicated Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed dissatisfaction with current measures during discussions with then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
