Donald Trump resonated with Israel's supporters when he posted on his social media platform TRUTH Social Tuesday: "Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire world, in the Middle East – but it's all talk, and no action! If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against humanity."
After a year of political, social, and military struggle to bring the hostages home, the president-elect has once again brought global attention to this burning issue, which has not received adequate media coverage worldwide. What lies behind this threat? Does Trump's statement have concrete strategic backing, or does the incoming president believe that words alone can create deterrence?
"From our experience with the president, it starts with a post and then develops into strategy," explains Rotem Oreg, an American politics expert and director of the LIBRAEL foundation, in an interview with Makor Rishon. "This characterized his first administration, but now we're seeing him come more organized and prepared. This is particularly evident in how he's appointing people around him – importantly, people with more developed worldviews. The main challenge is actually finding effective pressure points, as it's clear to everyone that Americans won't directly intervene in Gaza. If anyone has such fantasies, they should abandon them."
Regarding realistic scenarios, Oreg suggests that "Trump might give Israel more operational freedom, but then the question becomes what haven't we already done that could help. His threat might also translate into support for specific Israeli actions against Hamas that could potentially change the dynamics."
This isn't the first time the president-elect has raised the hostage issue. Throughout his White House campaign, Trump repeatedly called for their release. However, his latest statement appears considerably more forceful than previous ones. "There's a process aimed at helping Trump understand that he has an opportunity here to make history and get credit," Oreg explains. "When I met with advisers to senior officials in the new administration, I told them his way to brand this mission is to succeed where Biden failed. Biden spent more than a year trying to bring the hostages home without success, and Trump might actually accomplish it.
"The question is whether the incoming president is pursuing this because he sees potential for credit, which is what interests him, or if, like with North Korea, he'll hit a wall and back off. Trump needs to see that the hostage struggle benefits him somehow. As long as figures in Israel and the United States keep telling him that working for their release is important, as long as they continue to thank him for his involvement, Trump will keep participating in the mission."
How will the incoming president's post actually influence the terrorist organization? According to Oreg, "Hamas is less affected by American threats because they've already taken enough hits. The more someone is beaten, the less they have to lose, and this applies to terrorist organizations too. State actors like Iran are usually more sensitive to such threats because they have more assets to lose." This offers little encouragement to those who believed the American president's words would transform the Middle East.
Alternatively, journalist and Middle East researcher Edy Cohen told Makor Rishon that "Trump's threats aren't new; he's said these things before and is now naturally escalating the tone. However, I don't buy them. Actually, Hezbollah's defeat, the split battlefronts, the expulsion of Hamas leaders from Qatar, the Democrats' loss, Trump's rise, the elimination of Nasrallah and Sinwar, the ceasefire agreement – all these constitute a mortal blow to Hamas."
The researcher argues that the possibility of Hamas releasing the 101 hostages isn't far-fetched. "The organization is losing legitimacy even in Arab countries that previously supported it, and this plays much more in our favor than Trump's post. It's no coincidence that Hamas is now releasing more hostage videos – they want movement. They want to end the war."
