Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, liked to chant "Death to Israel!" and "Death to America!" Ali Khamenei, who succeeded him in 1989, designed a strategy to make progress toward those goals. He organized, funded, and armed multiple terrorist groups in the lands surrounding Israel.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett likened these proxies to the tentacles of an octopus. So long as Israel was busy wrestling with them, the head of the octopus could rest safely in Tehran. Meanwhile, Khamenei's scientists were developing nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them to targets anywhere – America very much included. This shrewd strategy has now unraveled – significantly though not completely.
Following Hamas' barbaric invasion into Israel from Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023, Hezbollah began firing rockets from Lebanon into Israel. The IDF mounted a counterattack that, more than a year later, has succeeded in crippling Hamas and Hezbollah – to the chagrin of "the international community." Plus, in response to enormous missile barrages fired from Iranian soil in April and October of this year, the Israeli Air Force moved to strip Khamenei of his air defenses.
In Syria, rebels recognized the unique opportunity these developments presented. Late last month, they attacked the armed forces of longtime dictator Bashar Assad in Aleppo, Syria's second largest city. Those forces turned tail and ran. The rebels then marched south to the cities of Hama and Homs and, on Sunday, they took Damascus, the Syrian capital.
Hezbollah did not ride to Assad's rescue. Nor did Russian dictator Vladimir Putin who has been stretched thin by his imperialist war against Ukraine. Instead, he pulled some of his ships and military equipment from the sole Mediterranean naval base he occupies – for now – at the port of Tartus. As for Khamenei, he decided not to risk his own troops or those of his Shia militias in Iraq.
Assad has reportedly fled to Moscow. You'll note he did not choose to relocate to Tehran where his wife, Asma, might have had to drape herself in a burka. (This must come as a relief to the editors at Vogue magazine who, in a March 2011 cover story, praised the fashionable Mrs. Assad as "A Rose in the Desert.")
The defeat of the dynastic Syrian dictator, responsible for the slaughter of a half million of his fellow countrymen and the displacement of millions more, deserves celebration, as does the cracking of Khamenei's imperialist, settler-colonialist project. But, in the world we live in, there are no permanent victories. Remember the excitement over the Arab Spring? And who did not think that, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia would have decent governments?
Of the many Syrian rebel groups now vying for power, the strongest is Hayat Tahrir al Sham. Designated by the US as a foreign terrorist organization, HTS's roots trace to al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, claims he has broken with both. HTS is supported by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey which is a member of NATO. If that sounds reassuring, factor in that Erdogan also is a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. He recently said, "Western civilization will collapse; our divine and humane civilization will flourish."
HTS is believed to receive support as well from Qatar, which President Joe Biden, for reasons I can't fathom, named a "major non-NATO ally." Qatar's rulers also are pro-Muslim Brotherhood and pro-Hamas. Al Jazeera, their global media network, is cleverly anti-American and viciously anti-Israeli.
Meanwhile, in Tehran, I imagine that Khamenei is furiously pounding his desk, asking his underlings how long before his nukes will be ready. At this point, the US government – it would be useful for the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration to be on the same page here – should warn HTS and others, Erdogan included, that attacks against Americans or friends of Americans will bring severe consequences. Among those friends: Christians, Druze, and Kurds (who have been working hand-in-glove with 900 elite US troops to prevent the Islamic State from reconstituting).
While it's too soon to say who will rule Syria, a land once known as the "cradle of civilization," over the months and years ahead, the Israelis are shaping the environment. More specifically: They are demilitarizing Syria.
Israeli fighter jets have struck tanks, helicopters, planes, and warships. Most significantly, they have destroyed the weapons facilities where Assad stockpiled chemical weapons that could have fallen into the hands of terrorists. The "international community" should thank the Israelis. Don't hold your breath.
Here's what else would make the world a safer place: If the US, on its own or in cooperation with Israel, would make plans to derail Tehran's nuclear weapons and missile programs. The fall of the Assad regime and the fracturing of Khamenei's anti-American and anti-Israeli axis have created a chance to restructure the Middle East.
This lesson should be clear: Though might may not make right, it is might that alters reality in ways that diplomats, peace processers, and calls for "de-escalation" and "ceasefire" do not. That suggests that Trump's most essential mission should be to re-build US military strength; to ensure that America's capabilities are sufficient to overwhelm any enemy or combination of enemies. If those enemies perceive that we have such capabilities and the will to deploy them, they are likely to be deterred.
Such capabilities do not come cheap, but deterring enemies is always cheaper than fighting wars against them. And winning wars is always preferable – in multiple ways – to losing wars.
Clifford D. May is president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a columnist for The Washington Times.
