In a year marked by significant political transitions worldwide, 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for global democracy. From the potential breakthrough in Lebanon's presidential deadlock to groundbreaking judicial reforms in Mexico, and from the anticipated power shifts in Germany to the continuing saga of authoritarianism in Belarus, six key elections stand out as particularly consequential. These votes could reshape not only their respective nations but also impact regional stability and international relations, especially as countries grapple with immigration policies, economic challenges, and the ongoing transformation of democratic institutions.
Lebanese presidency
Like in Israel, Lebanon's president is indirectly elected by parliament. The 2016 presidential election succeeded, with Michel Aoun serving until 2022. Since then, several elections have been held, but parliament members failed to elect a president. The fractured parliament elected in 2022 includes nearly forty separate parties, which formed rival coalitions but failed to achieve a majority for a consensus president. Now, following Hezbollah's defeat and Assad's fall, a new agreement might emerge allowing the country to finally elect a president.
Belarusian presidency
Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus's president since 1994, is expected to be elected for a seventh consecutive term. After the previous presidential election in 2020, the Belarusian ruler dissolved all parties in the country and "disappeared" many political rivals or had them imprisoned long-term. In February's parliamentary elections, all four competing parties supported the Lukashenko regime. The incumbent ruler is expected to win, but last January he prepared for another possibility: he passed a law guaranteeing him lifetime legal immunity, as well as government security and residence after his term ends.
German Bundestag
The elections, likely to be held in February due to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government collapse, are expected to significantly weaken his Social Democratic Party. Polls currently show the main right-wing party, the Union (CDU/CSU), which has been in opposition since 2021, in the lead. This is former Chancellor Angela Merkel's party, now led by Friedrich Merz. Polls also herald the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which opposes immigration. It ranks second in opinion polls; in previous elections, it placed sixth.
Mexican courts
Early summer will see the first phase of Mexico's judicial elections. Following the judicial reform passed by former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, all judges in the country, at every court level, will be elected by voters. Candidates must pass legal exams and have at least five years of legal experience. They don't submit their candidacy directly but need support from one branch of government – legislature, president, or judiciary. Then comes a public election campaign, including debates, speeches, and all standard political practices. On June 1, citizens can vote for judges who will preside over them – local magistrates in their city, district judges in their region, state judges, and federal judges. Voters will need to choose about forty judges total, in two separate phases in 2025 and 2027.
Canadian House of Commons
The preset election date is October 20, 2025. The weakening of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government, particularly following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, Canada's southern neighbor, might trigger early elections. In the previous 2021 elections, Trudeau's Liberal Party won 32 percent of votes and the Conservative Party won 33 percent, but in legislative seat distribution, the Liberals gained 160 seats compared to the Conservatives' 119. Still, Trudeau's government needed to form a quasi-coalition with the New Democratic Party to achieve a majority of over 170 seats. Current polls show Trudeau's party receiving 20 percent of voter support; the Conservatives get approximately 45 percent, a support level that should lead to a decisive parliamentary majority.
Argentine legislatures
Like in the US, Argentina holds "midterm elections": during groundbreaking President Javier Milei's term, elections will be held for half the House of Representatives and one-third of Senate seats. Milei's party, La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances), currently holds 7 of 72 Senate seats and 40 of 257 House seats. In polls, it's roughly tied with its strongest rival, Union por la Patria (Union for the Homeland), a leftist Peronist party holding 33 Senate seats and 99 House seats.
