Israeli political and military leaders are considering plans for a fresh ground campaign in Gaza that could include a military occupation of the entire enclave for months or longer, according to Washington Post reporting. The plans would mark a significant escalation in Israel's 17-month operation.
Current and former Israeli officials briefed on the matter told the Washington Post that the new tactics would likely include direct military control of humanitarian aid, targeting Hamas's civilian leadership, and evacuating women, children and vetted noncombatants to "humanitarian bubbles" while laying siege to those who remain. This approach would intensify tactics first employed last year in northern Gaza.
Israeli officials emphasized they are still waiting for the outcome of ceasefire talks and no decisions have been made on whether – and how – to escalate the current phase of the offensive, which has so far consisted mostly of aerial bombardment, the Washington Post reported.
If implemented, the maximalist approach would represent a departure for the Israeli military, whose previous leaders feared becoming entangled in the Gaza Strip. According to people familiar with the planning, a full-scale invasion and occupation would require up to five army divisions, potentially stretching the Israel Defense Forces thin as reservists increasingly voice skepticism about an open-ended conflict.
Amir Avivi, a former deputy commander of the military's Gaza division, told the Washington Post that the IDF's campaign last year was constrained by disagreements between political and military leaders over tactics and strategy, and by the Biden administration's concerns about harm to Palestinian civilians.
"Now there is new [IDF] leadership, there is the backup from the US, there is the fact that we have enough munitions, and the fact that we finished our main missions in the north and can concentrate on Gaza," Avivi said. "The plans are decisive. There will be a full-scale attack and they will not stop until Hamas is eradicated completely. We'll see."
Israeli officials indicate they remain willing to negotiate with Hamas through mediators before launching any large-scale invasion. Before dawn on Tuesday, Israel carried out extensive aerial attacks targeting Hamas leaders and fighters while conducting limited ground raids. Hamas responded by launching rockets at Tel Aviv.
An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, denied that Israel broke the ceasefire agreement. The official stated that Israeli authorities had presented their conditions for entering the second phase of the agreement on the 16th day of the truce, but Hamas rejected them.
According to the official, Hamas then declined a "bridge" proposal by United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff to extend the ceasefire by 40 days in exchange for 11 living hostages. Instead, Hamas offered to release one American Israeli hostage, after which Israel decided to resume hostilities – which the official claims was permitted under a clause of the ceasefire agreement if talks were deemed to have broken down.
The Israeli official added that Witkoff's proposal "is still on the table," but "we're back to negotiating by different means: under fire." Hamas said on Saturday it was still considering Witkoff's proposal.
Israel claims it has destroyed nearly all of Hamas's 24 fighting battalions, leaving only a few thousand fighters in Gaza. However, completely eradicating these remnants would require holding the territory – which some officers and analysts suggest carries significant risks.
"If you look at the French in Algeria, [the US] Operation Iraqi Freedom, the Americans in Afghanistan, the history of counterinsurgency attempts teach us that even the Israelis will fail," said Sascha-Dominik Dov Bachmann, an expert on warfare at the University of Canberra. "It would undermine the moral and ethical basis of Israel."
Supporters of a more intensive and prolonged operation argue that last year's campaign only resulted in Hamas reemerging from tunnels when the fighting subsided. They believe current political conditions favor increased military pressure and, if necessary, occupation of Gaza.
While the Biden administration previously restricted weapons shipments to Israel unless more humanitarian aid was allowed into Gaza, President Donald Trump has approved the sale of 2,000-pound bombs and officials have said Israel consulted with the Trump administration before cutting off all aid to Gaza earlier this month.
A leadership change within the Israeli military establishment has produced a more hawkish approach, analysts say. Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF chief of staff Eyal Zamir replaced officials who sometimes disagreed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
By February, Israeli officials had informed international aid agencies that future humanitarian assistance would be screened and directed to new "logistics hubs" established by Israeli authorities, agency officials told the Washington Post.
Another point of contention was that Gallant and Halevi favored targeting Hamas' military capabilities, while Netanyahu wanted to also strike the organization's civilian officials who dominate Gaza's government positions.
After Gallant was dismissed in November, Israeli media reported that he told families of hostages that Israel had achieved all its military objectives and cautioned against attempting to control Gaza.
Last week, Israel appeared to adopt a new approach, launching airstrikes that Katz likened to "opening the gates of hell." The strikes, which killed more than 400 people, targeted not only members of Hamas's armed wing but also civilian officials, including the director general of Gaza's Interior Ministry, the director general of the Justice Ministry, and members of the Hamas political bureau as they gathered for predawn meals before Ramadan fasting.
On Friday, Katz threatened to not only temporarily occupy Gazan territory but to annex it if Hamas did not make concessions regarding hostages. "The more Hamas persists in its refusal, the more territory it will lose, which will be annexed to Israel," Katz said in a statement.
"There is less opposition now with Zamir and Katz. They are more ready" for a more aggressive approach, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a former senior IDF intelligence official and head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. "The government was committed to removing Hamas from power. The security establishment was not happy with this idea. They were trying to focus more on military assets and less on civilian assets. Because once you remove Hamas from Gaza, the IDF would have to rule Gaza."
