Following Trump's speech, delivered in the spirit of a Nobel Peace Prize acceptance, and after the Saudi-French initiative and Trump's summit with Arab and Turkish leaders, Israeli eyes are now set on Netanyahu's Friday speech at the UN, his expected meeting with Trump on monday, and the looming question: will a deal with Syrian President al-Shara be finalized in the coming days?
Until the end of the holiday, Israel's rivals and enemies were largely left unchallenged diplomatically. The US was nearly the sole exception, forcefully recalling the atrocities of October 7, the prize handed to Hamas in the form of Palestinian state recognition, while most others struck blows, many cloaked in hypocrisy, at the Jewish state.
The UN has always been a hostile place for Israel. "Um-Shmum" was coined by David Ben-Gurion back in 1955. Abba Eban fought there with all his diplomatic skill, and Ambassador Chaim Herzog famously tore up the resolution equating Zionism with racism from the General Assembly podium.
Still, before Netanyahu even arrives in New York after the holiday, there have been statements that partially balanced the hostile atmosphere, not only from Trump. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto repeated his June declaration, first made alongside French President Emmanuel Macron in Jakarta, that once Israel recognizes a Palestinian state, Indonesia will be ready to recognize Israel. He stressed that support for a two-state solution must ensure Israel's security, saying peace could only be achieved if Israel's safety was guaranteed. "Only then can we achieve real peace. Real peace. And no more hatred and suspicion. The only solution is this: the two-state solution."
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas struck an unexpectedly critical tone toward Hamas, demanding the terrorist organization lay down its arms and promising any future Palestinian state would be demilitarized, with Hamas excluded from governance. His remarks appeared aimed at preempting Netanyahu's arguments that a Palestinian state poses a dire security threat to Israel.
But such remarks were exceptions. Netanyahu will arrive to counter them directly in his speech and in behind-the-scenes meetings, including with Trump. His central message will be a fierce condemnation of the countries recognizing a Palestinian state without conditioning it on Hamas's defeat and the hostages' return. He is expected to cite Hamas leaders openly thanking Western nations for this recognition, reiterating his longstanding argument that the October 7 attacks proved the dangers of Palestinian sovereignty next to Israel.
As in previous UN appearances, Netanyahu is expected to bring visual props, possibly including photos or fragments of rockets found near Ramallah and Tulkarem, to demonstrate the proximity of Palestinian threats to Israel's population centers. The plight of the hostages will take center stage, with Netanyahu bringing to New York representatives of hostage families and recently released hostages.
He is also expected to stress the strategic need to decisively defeat Hamas as justification for continuing the war, while highlighting humanitarian efforts in Gaza such as food distribution centers and safe zones. It is not yet clear if he will address postwar scenarios, who would govern Gaza, the extent of IDF deployment, or broader questions about expanding the Abraham Accords and relations with other Arab states.
According to Israeli officials, including Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, these regional diplomatic tracks have slipped lower on the priority list. Netanyahu is expected to emphasize Iran, portraying Israel's war against the Islamic Republic as a battle waged on behalf of the entire world. He will call for extending sanctions, including the "snapback" mechanism, to prevent Iran from advancing toward nuclear weapons.
In his meeting with Trump, Netanyahu will seek a green light to continue Israel's military campaign in Gaza until Hamas is fully defeated. The two are likely to agree on the end of the calendar year as the deadline for concluding the war. For Trump, this fits into his narrative of wars he has ended, which he hopes will bolster his case for the Nobel Prize.
Looking beyond Gaza, there are reported disagreements with Washington over reconstruction plans involving regional cooperation toward a broader political and economic "mega-deal," including possible Saudi entry into the Abraham Accords. The two leaders will also coordinate positions on Iran, though Trump has already claimed full credit for the campaign against Tehran in June.
The most intriguing element may be the talks with Syria. According to multiple reports, Trump is pressuring Syrian President al-Shara to show flexibility and reach an agreement with Israel in the coming days. American officials admit the gaps remain significant, particularly concerning Israeli control in the Hermon and along the Golan Heights, as well as security guarantees for the Druze minority allied with Israel.
Another sticking point is Israel's demand for continued freedom of action in Syrian skies, including strikes against terrorist targets. If a deal is reached, it could stabilize multiple fronts, particularly Lebanon, and even improve ties with Gulf states currently backing al-Shara.
Lebanon itself will also feature in discussions. US diplomat Thomas Burke, overseeing contacts with Beirut, has hinted that Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets complicate efforts to reach an agreement with the Shiite terrorist group. Netanyahu will be briefed on negotiations over disarming Hezbollah, a move the group rejects, claiming its arsenal is needed to defend Lebanon against Israeli aggression.
