A year after the agreement with Hezbollah, it is already clear that the ceasefire was designed from the outset to be one-sided. This means Hezbollah is forbidden from firing even a single bullet. Israel, however, is permitted under the terms of the agreement to thwart threats they are building. If anyone had any doubt, the elimination of Hezbollah's "third Chief of Staff," Haytham Ali Tabatabai, on Sunday, November 23, 2025, served as a reminder of the rules of the game.
Not only has no one in the world claimed that Israel violated the agreement, but Hezbollah is also afraid to return fire. Iran's flailing puppet is imprisoned in two ways – diplomatically and militarily.
Ron Dermer, who shaped the terms of the agreement on Israel's behalf, explained immediately after it was signed that this would be the outcome. In closed conversations, Dermer detailed the rules and mechanisms that were established. It was clear that Israel maintained a large scope of action to deal with any danger it identified, and this is what happened over the past year.
Dermer was also right when he argued that the IDF's operation in Lebanon at the time had exhausted its objectives. Consequently, Israel was faced with the choice between agreeing to the deal offered by the American envoy Hochstein or undertaking a full occupation of Lebanon. Occupation was and remains the only military way to eliminate Hezbollah, but today this option is not truly relevant, as Israel will not take on the management of Lebanon.
The decision to close the Lebanon front was correct for its time. The problems have not ended in the current round either, as Hezbollah is working energetically to rearm. The Israeli Air Force is working hard in Lebanon, but cannot keep pace. As was learned the hard way in Gaza, from the air, one can delay enemies, but not eliminate them. Complete elimination is only possible with a full ground occupation – something the Israeli public is currently not interested in.
According to well-informed diplomatic officials, the Trump administration set December 31 this year as the final date for the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. Should Lebanon fail to comply, the responsibility for the violation will rest with it. One of the fundamental lessons of October 7 is not to allow the enemy to build up power across the border. The current situation indicates that there will soon be no choice but to implement this lesson.
