In recent years, the phrase "The Iranians are playing chess, but we are playing backgammon" has become popular in Israel. However, whoever coined this phrase did not pay attention to one detail – Iran's intentions toward Israel and its understanding of the concept of time.
In Iran, time is not a critical or valued resource; therefore, a particular project – whether paving a road or striking Israel – can take decades and never be completed, which also affects Iran's own budget and creates enormous waste (see the water and electricity shortages and inflation).
This causes Iranian intentions to implement a certain plan to become perpetual, and this is true regarding their aspiration to destroy Israel. In the 12-day war, Israel dealt a severe blow (with US assistance) to Iran's nuclear program, but it appears that the intentions to return and achieve a deterrent nuclear capability have not left the minds of Iranian decision-makers. Both before the war and after it, there are generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or parliamentary representatives who promise the achievement of nuclear capability that will bring about deterrence of Israel, so that it will not attack Iran and its allies, terrorist organizations, again.
They want to change the religious ruling
A researcher at Iran's Guardian Council – the body responsible for interpreting the constitution and filtering candidates for various elections in Iran, to ensure that no law or person threatens the authority of the leader – went further when he challenged the religious prohibition of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei on the issue of producing, possessing, or using nuclear weapons. In an article in the Council's journal, cleric Alireza Jafarzadeh brought about ten quotes from the Iranian leader from the past 15 years regarding the prohibition to produce nuclear weapons, possess, and even use them – but he found, in the Iranian way, a loophole in the matter of honoring the leader's religious ruling reciprocally.
Alireza claimed in his article that the West and Israel did not honor the leader's religious ruling, which was accepted as a kind of promise to the Obama administration ahead of the 2014-2015 nuclear agreement, and which was the legal basis on the Iranian side for the agreement. Therefore, in his opinion, the time has come for the Iranian regime not to honor the religious ruling itself. Hinting to the leader, he claims that the regime and the nuclear program should be released from the shackles of the religious ruling, and allow those involved to advance the program and achieve deterrent capability – that is, nuclear weapons, according to the verse in the Quran "Prepare for them force as much as you can so that the enemy will be deterred from you." Thus, according to him, specifically achieving nuclear weapons, and not necessarily a religious ruling that ensures non-advancement toward the weapon, will prevent the next war and bring a quieter balance to the entire Middle East.
Indeed, at first glance, this statement seems similar to other Iranian threats about renewed empowerment and even rehabilitation of the nuclear program to the point of achieving the weapon, but the constitutional innovation and the loophole on which the man bases his claim are something new and dangerous that could lead to renewed discussion among Iranian decision-makers. Khamenei, the elderly Iranian leader, may find himself there in the minority against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members, eager to receive budgets to rehabilitate the nuclear program, alongside missile and terror programs (which already receive enormous budgets and are returning almost to the point before the war). This may even grant more power and authority to more radical forces to take control of additional power bases and dictate Iran's future miscalculation against Israel and the US.
The regime has not abandoned its intentions
Decision-makers, and particularly those managing contacts with the American administration on this issue, should pay attention to Iran's "constitutional nuclear crisis," and bring it to President Donald Trump's table. This is a clear example of the Iranian regime not abandoning its intentions of annihilation, even if the capabilities are not visible for the time being in the field. If this internal legitimization among the Iranians regarding a race to nuclear weapons and violation of their promise regarding the prohibition to achieve it succeeds, the day when they return to develop these capabilities with greater intensity will not be far off. As already stated, we have only three years to complete the mission against Iran once and for all. Therefore, we must remember their intentions and discuss them, and not wait again until the 90th minute, because time is somehow working in their favor.
