The emerging developments in the Gaza Strip are far from a total victory. The fallen hostage Ran Gvili has yet to be returned home. The Rafah crossing is set to reopen for Palestinian movement in both directions. Hamas, the terrorist organization, maintains full control over the designated "red zone" in Gaza. And the composition of the various boards that will accompany future steps in the Strip promises significant representation for Israel's enemies.
Still, Israel is acting correctly by staying aligned with the Americans. The pills it must swallow along the way are bitter, but the alternative is worse. A rupture with the administration at this time would be the worst of all possible outcomes. It would be bad on the eve of a potential strike on Iran and a rare opportunity to bring down the ayatollahs' regime. It would be bad on every other front, in Syria, Lebanon, Judea and Samaria, and of course Gaza. It would almost certainly also be politically damaging for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Iran, the day after
It takes a great deal of optimism, and naivety, to believe that anything good will emerge from this American concoction. It is more likely to boil over at some point, but for now, it is still on the stove, and Israel is required to praise the aroma, and the chef, even if it is not to its taste. The new world that Trump is managing comes with costs, and Israel cannot choose to pay them only when it is convenient. It must prioritize its interests and act accordingly.
The current prioritization clearly places Iran at the top. Everything else flows from that. The constant wave of rumors that "this is it" continued in Israel over the weekend, even though nothing has happened yet. The Americans are building up forces and, presumably, intelligence as well. Past experience shows that one cannot rule out the possibility that contacts are also taking place behind the scenes. For the Iranians, negotiations are almost the only lifeline to avert an attack, and sanctions relief is almost the only lifeline from their dire economic situation.
One can only hope that if it comes to that, the Americans will do two necessary things. First, they will set a clear time frame for the talks to avoid the familiar Iranian tactic of stalling. Second, they will push Iran into a corner toward a "dream deal" that includes a complete abandonment of its nuclear ambitions and its missile program.
Israel is right to watch these developments from the sidelines. It must be prepared defensively, and also for the possibility that an offensive will be required. But for now, the ball is entirely in the American court. There is a possibility that Iran could preemptively strike by launching missiles at US allies in the region, including Israel, though it is hard to see what it would gain from that. Such a move would force the Americans to attack, perhaps with far greater force than they are currently planning, and would certainly draw Israel into the campaign, with a desire to complete what remained unfinished from the June fighting.
Meanwhile, intelligence agencies and research institutes around the world are grappling with the question, still theoretical for now, of what would happen in Iran the day after. Experts struggle to point to any individual who could concentrate enough power to take control of the regime. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the shah, did surprise many when large numbers responded to his call and took to the streets, but it is doubtful that he could become more than a symbolic figure. The effort is focused on identifying an individual or group from within the protest movement, or from the security or government apparatus, who could take the reins of the state.
There are also those who believe that Iran could fracture into several states along ethnic lines. Azeris could join Azerbaijan. Shiites could align with Iraq. Kurds and Baluchis could gain autonomy. And the Persians would be left with a reduced Iran.
