Israel's security establishment believes that despite intensive efforts to advance negotiations, the US will ultimately strike Iran. That is the working assumption following the visit to Washington over the weekend by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and a number of other senior officials.
During his visit, Zamir met in Washington with the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, holding discussions with him and his team on all possible courses of action and their implications. The two met both one-on-one and in expanded forums with professional teams.
According to officals, the chief of staff's weekend visit proves the close coordination between the US and Israel ahead of a possible move against Iran. Even so, at this stage, and even after Zamir's brief stay in Washington, the Israeli side says it cannot determine whether the US will strike Iran or what the nature of such a strike would be, if it happens at all. In the meetings, Zamir sought to present Israel's assessment of the various options and the consequences of each.
Zamir also worked to convey Israel's interests to his interlocutors. As previously reported by Israel Hayom, he was accompanied by Maj. Gen. Hidai Zilberman, head of the Planning Directorate and until recently Israel's military attaché in Washington; Brig. Gen. Omer Tischler, the incoming commander of the Israeli Air Force; Brig. Gen. Meni Liberty, head of the Operations Division; and Brig. Gen. Amit Adler, head of the Strategic Planning Division.
In the absence of another senior figure to serve as Israel's main liaison with Washington, following the end of Ron Dermer's role and with others, such as Cabinet Secretary Tzachi Braverman in the Prime Minister's Office, deeply entangled in domestic matters, Zamir has effectively become Israel's top military point man with Washington, second only to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself.
Despite statements by US President Donald Trump about progress in negotiations, Israel's security establishment assesses that the president will ultimately order an American strike on Iranian soil, although there is no certainty.
Fear of a deal full of holes
Additional questions center on the nature of any attack. Would it be limited, possibly a one-off operation intended to "check the box" after the deployment of so many forces to the region, while allowing negotiations to proceed toward an agreement that could be marketed as "better than Obama's deal"? Or would it be a serious and extensive assault on regime targets, nuclear facilities, missiles and more?
Israel's primary concern is an agreement presented as strong, but in practice would be riddled with loopholes that fail to reflect Israel's core interests. These include dismantling Iran's nuclear program, preventing Iran from arming its proxies, and addressing Iran's missile program.
Israeli security officials say that given the intimate dialogue and close cooperation between the security establishments, Israel would not be caught by surprise if and when President Trump decides to strike Iran. Still, the wait for a decision could stretch from several days to several weeks. In the meantime, Israel continues to refine its defensive posture and attack plans, hoping that what it sees as a historic opportunity for the US to bring down the ayatollahs' regime will not be missed.
