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Home News Middle East Iran & The Gulf

Report: '90% chance' of US kinetic action on Iran

Axios reported, citing sources close to President Donald Trump, that a potential US strike on Iran would not be short and focused like the operation in Venezuela, but would instead last at least several weeks. More than 150 US military cargo aircraft have landed in the Middle East over the past day.

by  Neta Bar
Published on  02-18-2026 13:58
Last modified: 02-18-2026 14:03
Report: '90% chance' of US kinetic action on Iran

Trump weighs military strike in Iran. Photo: AFP, EPA

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The American news site Axios reported, citing sources close to President Donald Trump, that a potential US strike on Iran would not be short and narrowly focused like the operation in Venezuela, but would instead last at least several weeks.

According to the report, more than 150 US military cargo aircraft have landed in the Middle East over the past day, delivering weapons systems and ammunition. In addition, more than 50 fighter jets, including F-35, F-22 and F-16 aircraft, arrived in the region in the past 24 hours.

Axios reported that the scale of the military buildup, combined with Trump's rhetoric, could make it difficult for him to step back without securing major Iranian concessions on its nuclear program. According to the site, his advisers do not view the buildup as a bluff.

One source described internal debate within the administration over timing. Senator Lindsey Graham said strikes could be weeks away, though others suggested the timeline might be shorter.

"The boss is getting fed up," a Trump adviser told Axios. "Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks."

There is no evidence that a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran is imminent, the report added, but mounting evidence suggest the possibility of war is drawing near.

Buildup continues

The US aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford left the Caribbean Sea for the Atlantic Ocean on its way to the Middle East, The Washington Post reports, citing US security officials.

According to the newspaper, the carrier is being escorted by five destroyers. The Ford is expected to join the USS Abraham Lincoln and its carrier strike group, which have been operating in the Arabian Sea since late January.

What we know about the massive US military buildup in the Middle East. Photo: INSS/AP/EPA

A significant US naval presence is already concentrated in the Middle East. Alongside the Lincoln are three escorting destroyers. In the Persian Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, two additional destroyers and three warships equipped with mine-clearing systems for near-shore combat are deployed. In the Red Sea, the destroyer USS Delbert D. Black is operating, while two more destroyers are stationed in the Mediterranean Sea.

According to Axios, more than 50 F-35, F-22 and F-16 aircraft were transferred to the region in the past 24 hours alone.

The reports rely largely on open flight-tracking data, particularly of refueling aircraft, analysis of the squadrons stationed at departure bases and communications data. Official confirmation of force deployments is not routinely published unless there is an operational or other need to do so.

Tags: IranUS

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