Security officials believe Israel is in the final stages of achieving the military goals with which it launched Operation "Roaring Lion," with the exception of the Iranian nuclear issue. According to those assessments, US President Donald Trump is not expected to bring the campaign to an end without also addressing the nuclear matter, while the diplomatic aspect of ending the fighting is being led by the American administration.
According to sources in Israel's security establishment, there is full coordination between the IDF and the US military. However, decisions on how to bring the fighting to a close are being made at the political level in Washington. Officials also believe the chances of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran's current regime are low.
Security officials believe Iran's capabilities can be severely damaged, but that as long as the regime remains in power, the main achievement at the end of the campaign is likely to be the reduction of those capabilities and stronger deterrence.
Attempted pre-emptive strike in Lebanon
Regarding Israel's northern front, security officials said that after assessing that Hezbollah had decided to join the campaign, Israel planned a pre-emptive strike against the terrorist organization. However, Hezbollah beat Israel to it by firing several rockets, after which Israel announced that, from its perspective, the organization had joined the fighting and would bear the consequences.
Officials also said that about 1.206 million people had been displaced from their homes in Lebanon, including about 585,000 from the south of the country and about 621,000 from the Dahiyeh area. Southern Lebanon is now populated mainly by Christian and Druze villages, which were not used by Hezbollah for operations against Israel.
Security officials said that alongside seizing territory in southern Lebanon and deepening the operation, the IDF had struck five bridges over the Litani River, while three others are under the effective control of Israeli forces.
The question of outposts
Security officials stressed that Israel will require long-term freedom of action in the area south of the Litani. According to current assessments, Israel will move to demolish Shiite frontline villages, while allowing Christian and Druze populations to return.
As for the establishment of permanent outposts in southern Lebanon, security sources said that "we will fortify ourselves according to operational needs if necessary," but emphasized that at this stage the IDF does not believe permanent positions should be established, partly in light of the lessons of the security zone period.
On another matter, officials said Defense Minister Israel Katz is not expected to reinstate the use of administrative detentions, despite the rise in Jewish terrorism.
