The United States has set two conditions for renewing talks with Iran in Pakistan. The first is the full and unrestricted reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before the talks begin. The second is agreement by all senior regime officials to any understandings reached in Islamabad. That is according to two diplomatic sources familiar with the matter.
Since the talks were stopped early Sunday morning, the Pakistanis, along with other mediators including Oman, Egypt and Turkey, have been trying to bring about their renewal before the two-week time frame President Donald Trump set for the negotiations expires. So far, however, Iran has not fulfilled its commitment to reopen the strait, apparently because of opposition from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, despite prior agreement by the political echelon.
The Americans, who have begun imposing a blockade of their own on ships and tankers heading to and from Iran, believe it will take several days for the effects of that blockade to be felt and for Revolutionary Guards personnel to soften their position. One option under discussion is for the talks to resume even if the strait is not reopened, while remaining closed to all ships and tankers, meaning the US blockade would also continue.
According to one of the diplomatic sources, the Americans are sticking to a position of reciprocity. In other words, if the Iranians prevent the movement of ships and tankers, their own ships and tankers will not be allowed to move through it either. To increase the pressure, the Americans are expected to direct the "Iranian" ships and tankers to anchor in maritime areas under their control in the Indian Ocean, effectively holding them hostage until agreements are reached.
Rift at the top of the Iranian regime
Against the backdrop of a deepening rift within the regime, between the political leadershup, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reports from Iran indicate that Pezeshkian demanded that parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf take a stand and save Iran from total economic collapse.
According to Pezeshkian, who also has the backing of Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, the delegation must be given advance authority to reach agreements with the Americans so that reconstruction can begin. Two senior Revolutionary Guards officials, Ahmad Vahidi and Ali Abdollahi, did not allow the political delegation that was in Pakistan to provide answers to the Americans.
Ghalibaf and Araghchi said they had to return to Tehran and obtain the approval of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Americans responded that they would return to the talks only if the political delegation coming to meet them had the authority to close a deal.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi held a series of talks with his counterparts in the Gulf states, talks that one diplomatic source in the Gulf described as showing "brazen audacity" on Iran's part. According to the source, Araghchi tried to explain that the attacks were aimed only at American targets, but was unable to respond when presented with evidence that civilian targets had also been hit.
The source added that Araghchi is trying to preserve a channel of communication between the Gulf states and Iran, despite the de facto state of war between them and the Gulf states' sense of betrayal by Iran. Qatar, meanwhile, quickly denied rumors that it was in contact with Iran over a deal under which it would pay a kind of ransom in exchange for a halt to attacks against it if the fighting resumes, allowing it to restart operations at its natural gas facilities.
