The weekend's events began with an upbeat declaration by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that the Strait of Hormuz was open, and ended with a series of shooting incidents by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at ships in the waterway. The developments made clear that despite the ceasefire, the US has still not achieved its goal of reopening the critical shipping lane, and it is far from certain that there is a single authority in Iran capable of guaranteeing that, certainly not its civilian apparatus.
On Friday afternoon, Araghchi wrote on X that "passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared fully open for the remainder of the ceasefire." Trump quickly responded on Truth Social: "Iran has just announced that Hormuz is fully open and ready for full passage. Thank you!"
Following those statements, oil prices fell by more than 11%, about 20 ships began moving toward the strait, and within an hour the president posted a series of additional messages. Among other things, he claimed that Iran had "agreed never to close Hormuz again" and that it was "removing all sea mines with US assistance."
Trump also made clear that "the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect, unchanged as it applies to Iran only, until our deal with them is completed 100%," but added that the process was expected to move quickly because most of the points had already been agreed.
Inside Iran, meanwhile, Araghchi's announcement drew harsh criticism from the hawkish camp. Tasnim News Agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, attacked the declaration and called it "a bad and incomplete tweet that created misleading ambiguity." Mehr News Agency was even more scathing, saying that "the tweet gave Trump an opportunity to depart from reality and declare himself the winner of the war."
On Saturday, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the unified command of Iran's armed forces, announced that "control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state, and it is now under strict management and supervision by the armed forces." A spokesman for the command added that as long as the US does not allow full freedom of navigation for Iranian vessels, the situation in the strait will remain unchanged.
Around midday, vessels belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opened fire on two Indian-flagged merchant ships that were attempting to cross the strait, forcing them to turn back. On one of the tankers, the Sanmar Herald, a radio transmission was recorded in which the captain lashed out at the Guards personnel: "You gave me clearance to pass, my name is second on your list. You're shooting now? Let me go back."
At the same time, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said that a container ship had been hit by a missile northeast of Oman. India's Foreign Ministry expressed "deep concern" and convened an urgent discussion on the matter.
Trump addressed the developments on Saturday, saying, "We're having very good conversations, but wanted to close up the strait again. They can't blackmail us." He added an explicit threat: "I don't know if I'll extend the ceasefire. Unfortunately, we'll have to start bombing again."
At the same time, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US military was preparing to expand enforcement of the naval blockade and intended in the coming days to seize oil tankers linked to Iran in international waters around the world. Despite the escalation, the diplomatic channel remains open. Iran's Supreme National Security Council said it was examining "new proposals" from Washington delivered through Pakistan.
According to the reports, the US is considering unfreezing $20 billion in exchange for an Iranian surrender of its stockpile of enriched uranium. Even so, no time or place has yet been set for the next round, and Trump's ultimatum for reaching a deal expires as early as this coming Wednesday.
