Against the backdrop of the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, senior IDF officials say that although Israel's military objectives in Iran have been achieved, as long as the nuclear program is not removed from its territory and uranium enrichment does not stop, the result is, effectively, a failure.
According to them, even after the strikes on missile arrays, command centers and senior officials, and after the conditions created on the ground, the Iranian regime could make a renewed dash toward the nuclear project as soon as the fighting ends.
The IDF stresses that, as far as it is concerned, the success of the campaign will be measured only if the uranium is removed from Iran as part of a diplomatic arrangement. Officials say that possibility must be pursued to the fullest, but make clear that if it is not achieved, force must be used and Israel must go all the way to ensure the threat is removed.
The IDF's assessment is that despite the high tension on the various fronts, the ceremony marking the change of command of the Israeli Air Force will take place as planned this coming Tuesday. Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar will end his tenure after 39 years of service and be replaced by Maj. Gen. Omer Tischler, who received his major general ranks this week. Bar is concluding a historic term that began amid social protests and threats of refusal to serve, continued with the major failure of Oct. 7, which the outgoing air force commander says he will carry with him forever, and went on to include phenomenal operational successes on various fronts, crowned, of course, by the unprecedented strikes in Iran.
In the early planning for Operation Rising Lion last June, the planners found that on the 12th day of the operation the balance shifted and that, in terms of the ratio between Israel's achievements and the enemy's achievements, that was the right time to stop. The IDF did not present a similar graph for Operation Roaring Lion, but acknowledged that the day on which it would have been right to halt the operation, based on those considerations, was before the 40th day. However, it was the US that set the timetable.
The Israeli Air Force reports extraordinary cooperation with the Americans, to the point that the two militaries fighting together were exposed, and continue to be exposed, to each other's most closely held secrets, strengths and weaknesses. The commander of US Air Forces Central told Bar that from this place of deep integration, there is no turning back. This is the new baseline. In other words, Israel understands that the Americans want Israel with them for the long term.
Senior IDF officials say that Israeli Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar proposed to the US Air Force that an Israeli Air Force rescue force, led by the elite Unit 669 rescue unit, be the one to extract the American pilot and navigator of the F-15 that went down in Iran.
In the end, the Americans decided they would lead the rescue mission. But according to senior IDF officials, Bar would not have hesitated to send Israeli forces on the complex mission to rescue the American aircrew.
Meanwhile, after two and a half years of multi-front fighting, with an emphasis on two operations in Iran, the air force notes that it enjoys air superiority from Israeli territory all the way to Iran, but this cannot be taken for granted forever. Israel is already identifying, for example, that Syria is building an army and deploying various air defense systems and surface-to-air missile components across the country, mainly from leftover components that were not struck in the past.
As for the northern front, the Israeli Air Force is trying to deal with the threat posed by Hezbollah's explosive drones, which were used again against IDF forces in southern Lebanon. So far, Iron Dome has intercepted 27 drones launched from Lebanon, but the IDF stresses that Iron Dome cannot provide a complete solution to the problem.
The test at Lebanon's yellow line
About two weeks ago, a trial was held of various systems developed by Israeli defense industries to intercept drones. At this stage, however, contrary to reports by various companies, none of the systems has produced a satisfactory result. The IDF acknowledges that there will not be a 100% success rate in intercepting drones, but says it is possible to reach a success rate of about 80%. Part of the problem now, the IDF explains, is that the drones are launched from beyond the yellow line, where, as is known, the IDF does not strike under US President Donald Trump's directive.
The question is whether the IDF will be able to strike a terrorists launching drones from beyond the yellow line. From the perspective of senior IDF officials, this constitutes the removal of an immediate threat and the answer is unequivocally yes, but the matter has not yet been tested.
