Senior diplomatic sources stressed to the Lebanese newspaper Al Joumhouria that the circumstances of 1976, when Syria entered Lebanon, are fundamentally different from the circumstances of 2026, making the possibility of the Syrian Army entering the country unrealistic.
The sources said Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa was unwilling to enter Lebanon, and had expressed this position himself when he said that "Lebanon is a swamp." The sources noted that despite US President Donald Trump's calls for al-Sharaa to prepare to confront Hezbollah, these were mainly political messages directed at several parties, including Lebanon and Israel.
"Everyone understands the nature of Trump's methods and knows full well that any direct Syrian role in Lebanon requires understandings among Syria, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, making this scenario unrealistic," the sources said.
In addition, the officials recalled that Syrian forces entered Lebanon in 1976 on the basis of a decision by Arab states that provided political and legal cover. The goal at the time was to end the civil war. According to the sources, today there is no such request from Arab states. On the contrary, the Arab and international trend is to support the Lebanese state and its institutions.
According to the sources, achieving a regional balance of power against Iran will not be achieved through Syria entering Lebanon, but through new regional alliances and understandings that will take shape among several countries, foremost among them Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan. Another reason cited for noninvolvement was the internal challenges facing al-Sharaa's rule in Syria.
