Diplomatic officials from the region and the West have voiced concern for the fate of Iran's political and civilian leadership, which advanced the memorandum of understanding with the US.
According to these officials, the attempts to harm Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian during the mourning events and funeral procession for Ali Khamenei point to a loss of restraint toward them by the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. One official, who is well versed in developments inside Iran, told Israel Hayom that as part of the internal dispute in Iran, which has intensified following the signing of the memorandum of understanding, Guard commanders could take control of the civilian leadership and move to oust Pezeshkian's government.
یک بار دیگر فیلم حمله‌ور شدن اوباش انقلابی به وزیرخارجه جمهوری اسلامی ایران را ببینید،
سنگی که به طرف ایشان پرت شد می‌توانست باعث شهادت ایشان شود،
این دیگر فقط توهین و فحاشی نیست،
یک عملیات تروریستی است.منتظر شناسایی و برخورد جدی قوه قضائیه با این تروریست‌ها هستیم. pic.twitter.com/HZ7mWLVP2J
— مش ممد?? (@mhmdhsyn__) July 7, 2026
Israel Hayom reported that Araghchi made clear in his latest messages to his American interlocutors and to mediators from Pakistan and Qatar that Iran's political leadership was unable to secure the Guards' consent to the terms of the agreement or to the cessation of fire at tankers and ships passing through the Gulf.
The remarks were made, among other occasions, in a conversation with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, who demanded explanations as to why Guard personnel had fired at a Qatari tanker carrying liquefied natural gas as it tried to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The diplomatic officials said Guard personnel were leveling accusations against the political leadership that bordered on treason, claiming they had exceeded the mandate given to them in the negotiations by giving up on the issue of fees in Hormuz and on uranium enrichment on Iranian soil. Claims are also being made that the political leadership concealed some of the understandings with the US from other senior regime officials, foremost among them the Guard commanders.
Given this situation, the US administration, as well as Israel and countries in the region, are examining the options for how to act, and whether there is a chance to bring down the regime and help create the conditions for doing so, even if this is a long process. One of the clear conclusions is that in order to advance such a goal, the economic siege on Iran must be restored quickly. For now, Iran has managed to bring in billions of dollars from renewed oil exports, which resumed with the thaw with the US two and a half weeks ago.
Data from ship-tracking organizations show that the passage of tankers and ships along the southern route near Oman has stopped completely. Iranian tankers, too, are barely passing through, apart from three oil tankers that headed for the Far East. They join an especially large convoy of Iranian tankers that left the Gulf at an accelerated pace in recent days, in an effort to take advantage of the time left for exports. The US did cancel the decision to suspend sanctions on oil exports, but allowed Iran to complete deals that had already been arranged by the middle of next week. In doing so, Iran has once again, at least temporarily, managed to close the strait while continuing to export oil itself.
Meanwhile, the internal dispute among Gulf states is widening. The United Arab Emirates, along with Bahrain and Kuwait, is demanding far-reaching decisions against Iran through a joint move by the Gulf Cooperation Council. Among other things, they are demanding the advancement of an international decision, including at the UN Security Council, guaranteeing free and open passage for all in Hormuz, in order to neutralize Iran's demand to preserve its control there. They are also demanding an international military initiative to defend this critical waterway, a move that would lead to the resumption of tanker and ship traffic in the near term.
Qatar, which is mediating and is close to Iran, holds the position that despite the shooting, diplomatic efforts must continue, since the military steps against Iran have failed and even led to the Iranian response in Hormuz. Oman supports Qatar's position, while Saudi Arabia remains on the fence but completely rejects naval military action and a return to war against Iran. What all these countries have in common is disappointment with the US, which, at least for now, has not managed to bring about the opening of the strait or remove the Iranian threat against them through either diplomatic or military means.
