With about three months to go before November's midterm elections, the picture in the US is increasingly pointing toward a split outcome: Democrats have emerged as favorites to take control of the House of Representatives, while Republicans still hold a narrow advantage in the Senate. Midterm elections traditionally serve as a referendum on the sitting president and can create an entirely different political dynamic during the second half of a presidential term.
For now, US President Donald Trump has Republican control of both the House and Senate, along with a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, giving him ideal conditions for advancing his policies. The Republicans' nightmare scenario, however, could turn Trump into a "lame duck" with two full years still remaining in the Oval Office: His legislative agenda would grind to a halt, House committees would launch sweeping investigations into the administration's conduct, and Democrats are already discussing the possibility of beginning impeachment proceedings, even if they would have no realistic prospect of completing the process.
The political winds are currently blowing to the left. The reason is not enthusiasm for the Democratic brand, but the president's weakness after a turbulent year and a half in office. The worldwide tariffs imposed in the spring of last year, the Epstein files, the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in the winter, and finally the war with Iran and its impact on the global economy have pushed the president to unprecedented lows for this stage of his presidency. Just 35% of Americans approve of Trump's performance, while 63% disapprove.
The cost of living remains the leading issue for 45% of respondents, and voters now give Democrats a clear advantage in dealing with it, an area in which Republicans have traditionally been stronger. Trump's MAGA brand has become a liability: According to polls, 59% of independent voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate identified with the movement.
Republican strategists are already developing a new campaign formula: "Trump policies, less Trump." The idea is to focus on the border, crime and taxes while limiting candidates' joint appearances with the president.
Despite the polling advantage enjoyed by Democrats, a change in control is far from certain. Democrats need only a handful of gains to take the House, but the task is more difficult than it appears. Over the past year, Republicans, encouraged by Trump, launched a redistricting drive that gave them an advantage in five seats expected to remain "red," raising the threshold for a Democratic takeover to eight seats.
The main battlegrounds are in suburban and swing districts, where Republicans are defending most of the closest seats in the country. Democrats have more potential targets than Republicans, but also less room for error: If the Democratic surge weakens in the coming months, that may be enough for Trump's party to retain control.
Key races
The Senate is a much tougher proposition for the Democratic Party. Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage, and because Vice President JD Vance would break any 50-50 tie, Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
That means they must not only defend their existing seats in blue states but also capture seats in states that Trump won by double digits in the presidential election two years ago. Of the states whose races are currently considered close, two contests illustrate the election's two central narratives particularly well: the Democratic Party's identity crisis and the price Republicans may pay for their loyalty to Trump.
The first is Michigan, a swing state that Trump won two years ago. In the Democratic primary, Abdul El-Sayed, an anti-Israel progressive, narrowly defeated moderate US Rep. Haley Stevens.
The Democratic primaries, however, do not point to a complete progressive takeover. Establishment candidates prevailed in Missouri and Washington, for example. Instead, they reveal a party still searching for its identity after losing to Trump two years ago.
In that sense, the midterms will also serve as a litmus test ahead of the 2028 presidential election. In the moderate camp, governors and other prominent figures such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro are building their political bases around the argument that only a pragmatic move toward the center can return the party to the White House.
Progressives, by contrast, hope that victories by candidates such as El-Sayed in swing states will prove that Democrats can win power while pursuing an explicitly progressive agenda, including a strongly anti-Israel line.
The second race is in Texas, where a Democrat has not been elected to the Senate in nearly four decades. In May, Trump-backed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated veteran Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary. It was part of a nationwide campaign by the president to remove Republicans he considers insufficiently loyal to his demands.
Paxton, who carries considerable political baggage, will now face Democrat James Talarico, who already holds a narrow lead over him in some polls. A Republican defeat could prove to have been an extraordinarily costly mistake, badly damaging Trump's standing within his own party and portraying both him and candidates closely identified with him as electoral liabilities.
The impact on Israel
For Israel, the midterm elections and the resulting composition of Congress could prove to be a watershed in relations with the US.
A scenario in which Trump loses both the House and Senate, while the Democratic Party's progressive wave proves electorally successful, could turn the troubling votes against aid to Israel, which have been cast more than once during the current congressional term, into a genuine threat to Israel's security.
