Let's call it what it is: Israel is heading for a lockdown. The government might be avoiding an official announcement for various political and economic reasons, but we are going to be effectively shutting down. We will be closing ourselves off the world, and with the expected rise in morbidity – shutting ourselves in our homes.
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The original shutdown of Ben-Gurion International Airport about a month ago was a wise move. It allowed Israel to minimize the cases of the Omicron variant coming into the country, and slow its spread in the community. Other countries that didn't take similar action in time are now confronted with unprecedented waves of COVID cases. From Britain, with its average of 100,000 new cases a day, to the US, where Omicron accounts for 70% of new cases.
But Israel's decision to close down some economic sectors is controversial. Despite the efforts, Omicron is already heart, and is spreading at a dizzying rate. While only a month has passed since it made its global debut, initial studies point to three trends that are becoming clear: the new variant is significantly more contagious than the previous ones; the number of Omicron cases doubles extremely quickly – every two and a half to three days on average, compared to every eight to 10 days for the Delta variant, making Omicron three times more contagious than its predecessor; and it causes relatively mild cases of COVID-19 in those who contract it.
Lieberman's mistake
All the experts are presenting the same picture, in which Omicron will become the predominant strain in Israel in the next few days and send new cases skyrocketing. That is what happened in Britain and Denmark, which turned into global test cases. That's also what's happening in the US and several other countries, and what appears to be taking place here, as well.
There will be a sharp rise in the numbers. Graphs show us that this coming week, we can expect to exceed 5,000 new cases per day, and over 10,000 new cases per day later on. But this data point, which was the main criterion two years ago, is less relevant in a largely vaccinated country. We need to turn our focus to the numbers of hospitalized COVID patients and COVID patients in serious condition, and for now, both these numbers are fairly low and stable. On Thursday, there were 80 COVID patients in serious condition, more or less the same number seen this week, despite the sharp rise in new cases.
Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman infuriated a lot of people when he said this week that Omicron was "like the flu." Scientifically, that's incorrect, and the number he tossed out – that thus far only 12 people in the world have died from the Omicron variant – was also inaccurate. The actual number is much higher. Still, Lieberman wasn't far off – currently, there are many more people hospitalized in Israel with flu complications than with COVID, and almost everyone who has contracted Omicron has been only mildly ill with it.
In South Africa, which reported the Omicron variant on Nov. 19, an enormous number of people were infected with the new variant, but only a few became seriously ill or were hospitalized. Experts are still taking a skeptical view of the data arriving from South Africa, because many of the people who caught it appear to have been recovered COVID patients, which caused their cases to be much milder. But even if we look at more advanced (and vaccinated) countries, the situation is the same. Britain and Denmark, for example, are reporting record numbers, but few serious cases or deaths.
The rampant morbidity is necessarily leading to major parts of the economy being shut down. Part of this is voluntary: the government has already announced frameworks to limit entrance to public places and gatherings (here's a tip – start treating the public seriously, and stop driving them crazy with instructions that change before they even take effect). Part of this is being forced: the sharp rise in morbidity will lead to a corresponding rise in the number of people in quarantine, and later on to reduced presence at work and school – a lockdown, in other words.
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Some experts support more drastic measures, such as banning New Year's Eve and Novy God parties entirely, limiting the number of attendees at cultural and sporting events, and considering a temporary shift to hybrid school schedules, which saw partial success in the previous COVID waves.
Other experts are challenging this rigid thinking, which still dominates decision-making circles. They think that given the fact that Omicron only causes mild cases, other models should be considered. They recommend that the school system avoid automatic quarantine for anyone exposed to a confirmed carrier and increase the number of tests performed, and mainly – to vaccinate more people.
Maaleh Adumim Mayor Benny Kashriel said this week that he had been begging the education and health ministries, as well as the IDF Home Front Command, to provide him with mobile vaccination units so he could provide vaccines in his city's schools. Kashriel might have woken up too late – Maaleh Adumim is dealing with an outbreak that started in its schools – but he put his finger on something infuriating that also happened in Herzliya and other cities, which asked for help and were told it would arrive "next week." This is outrageous because both the current and former governments justifiably made vaccinations a central goal and the surest way to battle the virus. But the same government is making a mockery of its own decision when it fails to back it up with resources that will make it possible to vaccinate en masse in a short timeframe. Israel was correct in closing down the airport, but what was the point if the time it bought us isn't being optimized?
However, this week saw one positive step implemented – vaccination stations were opened in shopping malls. This is a tactic that has already proven itself in a number of western European countries – many of the unvaccinated opted out not because of ideology, but because they couldn't find the time. But if the vaccine comes to them – they'll be happy to get jabbed. This reasoning should be applied to schools – and possibly even leisure sites and soccer stadiums. If the goal is to vaccinate everyone, and it is, we need to leave no stone unturned to achieve it.
On our way to the next variant
Some experts think that Omicron represents the end of the coronavirus pandemic, or at least the virus morphing into a minor illness that will be with us chronically. This might not be the case, Omicron is only getting started and it will take time until we have a clear picture of it. We'll also need to wait for the next variant to see if they are also weakening. What is clear is that in contrast to the previous waves, the situation is under control at the moment, and even the expected rise in morbidity won't bring us closer to the nightmare scenario of the healthcare system collapsing.
Still, Israel is heading into a lockdown. The government isn't saying so, because it wants to do the opposite of what the previous government did, and also because it wants to avoid the economic costs. This is what happened in some of Israel's prior security emergencies – the government refrained from declaring a "special situation in the home front" to avoid compensating factories and business owners. Then, like now, it is a petty move and puts all the burden on people who work hard and pay taxes, who rather than getting support from the government receive a slap to the face. From a government that espouses "change," we can and should expect a lot more.
