Ever since the Israeli attack on the outskirts of Damascus at the beginning of this week, discussions in Israel have focused on Hezbollah's expected response. Even if the response is harsh and painful, heaven forbid, none of the sides involved are interested in things escalating to the point of war. And yet, the longstanding trends coming out of Iran's leadership for the building of a regional system that threatens Israel's existence and prosperity will continue to develop. It is worth offering our strategic opinion on the strategic significance of this new and growing threat.
With the Syrian civil war now fading and with Hezbollah and Syria doing Iran's bidding, the northern sector is undergoing a potential quantum leap in terms of the threat presented to Israel. From the south, Hamas and Islamic Jihad forces have joined the effort in the Gaza Strip, as another operational front that demands Israel prepare one again for a war on multiple fronts. The last decade, which saw years of fighting in Syria, gave Israel a sense of relief, with the assessment being that the existential threat was fading.
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But in the meantime, a three-pronged system of threats is now coming into being: The first is the full-scale threat of unprecedented proportions from advanced precision rockets. These are organized offensive operational outlines that have already been set up to target strategic sites deep inside Israel, like air force bases, military headquarters, power stations, airports, and population centers. This threat sees Israel flanked on all sides – from Lebanon, Syria, the Gaza Strip, and more recently, a Shiite militia base in Iraq.
The second component: Iranian efforts through the use of Hezbollah forces and Shiite militias to create an additional terrorist front on the Golan Heights to be used for ground strikes into Israeli territory, in a direct threat to the communities on the confrontation line on the border with Lebanon and Gaza.
But why are we once again discussing an "existential threat"? Israel is stronger than ever, a genuine regional power. As Democratic Union member and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak wrote in a piece in Haaretz last weekend: "The external threats are many and evolving. They must not be underestimated, but I can say with authority – and not just as a political stance – that none of them constitute an existential threat to Israel's future, strength, or power."
Well, even the term "existential threat" demands contextual interpretation and critical investigation. True, this is not the existential threat of the operative kind we saw in May 1948. But since that time, and inspired by Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's decision to launch a war against Israel in October 1973 to regain control of the Sinai Peninsula, neither Hezbollah nor Iran are looking for a war to this end. We should look at Sadat's orders to his armed forces at the time:
"The strategic objective … to undermine Israel's defense doctrine through military action in accordance with the possibilities of armed forces, with the aim of inflicting heavy losses on the enemy and convincing them that the continued occupation of our lands demands too high a price."
This is to a great extent the Iranians' thinking, which is now also shared by Hezbollah and Hamas. By building up forces around Israel, the system could disrupt daily routine at any moment. It is in this way that the "war of attrition" on Israel is aimed at curbing and slowing its prosperity. This trend relies on a missile-based balance of terror, which forces Israel to avoid retaliatory action beyond mutual containment as much as possible. As a long-term process, this growing threat is gnawing at the Jewish people's hopes for a safe and prosperous homeland.
With this kind of threat being organized under Iran's guidance and supported by advanced technologies the likes of which are now in every individual's reach, the State of Israel must rise to this new existential challenge.
