Friday's protest on the Israel-Gaza Strip border was not as violent as the demonstration Hamas had orchestrated the week before, but the Israeli military remains concerned that the dynamics on the ground are growing more volatile by the day and it is looking for new ways to generate deterrence vis-à-vis Hamas so as to prevent an escalation that would involve Palestinians in the West Bank.
While only 20,000 Gazans participated in a second Hamas-backed demonstration on the border (compared to over 30,000 the week prior) events were more military than civilian in nature. If on March 30 protesters were sicced on the border with the aim of compromising the security fence and its surrounding infrastructure, last week's protest saw Hamas operatives overtly try to carry out shooting and bombing attacks against Israeli forces.
This shift has made life easier for the IDF as it could manage the event using fewer troops, as well as more accurately target those who threatened to compromise the border or the construction of the nearby underground countertunnel barrier.
Still, with nine dead, including a minor and a Palestinian journalist, and over 1,000 wounded, that IDF will have to review its operations, mostly so it can continue arguing that it is exercising selective force toward those who pose an imminent threat.
Hamas, as expected, has already begun spinning the number of casualties, and especially the fact that a minor and a journalist were killed, for its benefit, claiming their deaths proved that the riots on the border were no more than "spontaneous" civilian demonstrations protesting the prolonged blockade on Gaza.
This is a blatant lie but Hamas has been able to mark significant success in the international arena, which has been muted only by its failure in the Palestinian arena. Hamas has failed to incite Palestinians in the West Bank to take to the streets and stage mass protests. Barely 400 people participated in a solidarity rally in Ramallah on Friday, attesting to the fact that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his security forces are reluctant to reward Hamas in any way.
Still, it is doubtful that the Palestinians in the West Bank will be able to sit on the sidelines for much longer. The future demonstrations Hamas plans – on April 17, when the Palestinians mark Prisoners Day, and on May 15, when they mark Nakba ("catastrophe") Day, which commemorates the displacement of Palestinian refugees during Israel's War of Independence – have a wider Palestinian appeal and are bound to rouse the West Bank.
This will require the IDF to split its effort between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank – not to mention the volatile northern sector – and find new ways to preserve and generate deterrence so as to avoid further escalation.
This burden cannot be shouldered solely by the defense echelon. The government has to devise ways to make Hamas take a step back and this would require a combined diplomatic-security-economic effort, which is not in play at this time.
The Diplomatic-Security Cabinet would be wise to ponder this issue in its coming meeting. It is time to devise strategic solutions, not just tactical ones, before events on the southern border spiral out of control.
