The Israel Defense Forces has begun preparing for a full-blown war against Iran, and targeting its nuclear sites is only part of it. The new operational plans include the possibility of "trading punches" of varying intensity between the two countries, directly or through proxies.
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Israel abandoned such preparations in 2015 when the nuclear deal – officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – was signed. It accelerated the process again this year, but it will take 3-5 years for the plans to be complete.
Israel is also developing capabilities that will expand its options against Iran and intends to acquire various types of bombs and missile interceptors in preparation for a future confrontation with the regime.
It will consist of three phases spanning the time prior to any strike, the potential attack itself, and its aftermath.
The preliminary stage requires the IDF not only to create operational plans but also to prepare for a possible escalation on a variety of fronts. At the same time, Jerusalem will need to garner international legitimacy for the attack through expeditious diplomatic activity. Israel will do so without revealing its intentions to attack, except the United States, which will be a clandestine partner to the move.
"Coordination with the Americans is strategic, it is at the core of our interest," a senior IDF officer said recently. "They can help us quite a bit in the attack itself, for example, with their intelligence or radars in Iraq and the Gulf region, and even in rescue capabilities, and, of course, assisting us in military defense following the attack."
Israel will also need to determine the boundaries within which it will attack Iran. It might be limited and only include the Natanz and Fordo nuclear enrichment facilities, or more extensive, and include additional facilities connected to the nuclear program and even the Revolutionary Guards.
No matter the scenario, Israel is most likely to first target Iran's air defenses, to reduce to risk of its own Air Force being attacked.
The same senior IDF officer said Israel must make sure the attack will cause significant damage to the nuclear program, for "if the attack only delays it for a year or two, it will be as if we had done nothing."
As for preparing for the day after the attack, experts agree that Iran will respond, although it is unclear with what intensity. Some believe Tehran will use all of its capabilities and proxies to launch a counterattack against the Jewish state, while others argue its response will be minor.
All experts agree, however, that immediately after the attack Iran will begin to rehabilitate its nuclear program, claim Israel carried out the attack, and say it has the right to possess nuclear weapons to protect itself from similar attacks in the future.
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