U.S. President Donal Trump took a very brief timeout from his assortment of legal and domestic headaches last week to talk about the deal of the century, the dream deal his officials are concocting to forge peace between Israel and the Palestinians. He said Israel would have to pay a higher price than the Palestinians because of the down payment it had received, in the form of recognition of Jerusalem as its capital.
At the same time, however, his former attorney and close confidant, Michael Cohen, was concocting a deal of his own, with New York's attorney general: a plea bargain in which Cohen admitted having paid "hush money" to several women who had had relationships with Trump. This plea bargain roused quite a few media pundits, who even on a normal day are far from sympathetic to Trump, to begin calculating his political demise. Some have even predicted that immediately after the mid-term congressional elections in November, Democratic lawmakers will mobilize an impeachment process.
Either way, it still remains to be seen how determined Trump will be to promote a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians – which neither side seems overly thrilled about – and it is also entirely unclear whether he will be able to step away from the challenges facing him at home to personally invest in pushing a deal of this sort forward.
The Palestinian Liberation Organization, as per its custom, rushed to condemn Trump for the "disgrace of the century" he and his people were devising for the Palestinians. The Palestinians, it seems, are determined no matter what to completely reject any American peace plan, even one that is tacitly supported by Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. To be sure, we can never assume the emergence of a Palestinian leader who will agree to a deal demanding recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, conceding the right of return and sufficing with the little they still have left after a hundred years of conflict. After all, similar and even better proposals than Trump's have been offered to the Palestinians by various American administrations – and for that matter even by Israeli governments – but the Palestinians rejected them all in the hope of a better offer.
The Palestinians, however, also have more pressing issues to contend with, and not just because of the cease-fire deal Egypt is mediating between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, a process that has not included the Palestinian Authority at all. In Ramallah, it appears, they are preparing for PA President Mahmoud Abbas' departure. In accordance with Middle Eastern tradition, his rivals – among them "Mr. Soccer" Jibril Rajoub and PA security chief Majid Faraj – are forming armed gangs to ensure their victory. Indeed, in the Middle East, the winner (or successor, which is the same thing for all intents and purposes) is not determined by the number of votes, but by the number of rifles.
In Israel, too, no one is anxiously awaiting tidings from Washington. Last week, Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton, visited the country. It was an important visit that had nothing to do with the deal of the century, but with a far more urgent matter for Israel: Iran. Trump isn't only saying the right things; he is also taking action on this front. The sanctions he has imposed on Iran have crippled its economy. The bottom line, however, is that tough words and economic sanctions likely are not enough to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, let alone dislodge the Islamic republic from Syria and Iraq.
As it pertains to these issues, Washington still has no good answers. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin was quoted as saying he wants to see the Iranians leave Syria, but that he alone cannot force them out. What he meant was that he expects Washington to offer him a "deal of the century" of his own: to safeguard Russian interests in Syria, legitimize Syrian President Bashar Assad and provide him aid, and also act to remove Iran from the country.
The Americans should focus on such a deal, which would be easier for them to push forward and could contribute to regional stability, and could even help foster a deal or at the very least an arrangement between Israel and the Palestinians.
