In the past few weeks, the parties running for the Knesset have done everything they can to step up their campaigns, sharper messages, and make final preparations for the field headquarters that will now start operating at full steam. But there are two big questions hanging over the candidates' heads that could tip the scales in real time: what the undecided voters will do, and what the voter turnout will be. In a battle where the small parties could determine the makeup of the next government, these questions are being asked more loudly than usual.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
All the final polls were notable for one piece of data: the high number of undecided voters, which indicate that some 12 seats are still on the table. That's a lot. If they are redistributed, it could lead to a surprising result that no pollster predicted. And when the battle is so close and no one knows what the results will be, any change in either direction could cause real drama when the results start arriving.
Four parties have been waging battles at the bottom, at or near the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%, sometimes just over it, sometimes under. The entire minimum threshold is within the margin of error of standard polls, which is why it is difficult to predict the election results, not to mention last-minute changes that could take place on Election Day itself.
But the minimum threshold is the most important number for the fate of those parties – Meretz, Blue and White, Ra'am, and the Religious Zionist Party. No one can predict who will make it past. In the last three elections of the last two years, pollsters and pundits believed that each election would see fewer people participating than the previous one, but the opposite happened. The second election of 2019 saw higher voter turnout than the April 2019 election, and the third (March 2020) saw higher turnout than the second. Now we're having a fourth one, and who knows? The higher the voter turnout, the more difficult it will be for the parties closer to the minimum threshold to make it over. The lower it is, the more chances they have. So what is good for whom? Here, too, it's difficult to say. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like to see the left-wing parties shut out, which would increase his chance of securing the 61 seats he needs to form a right-wing coalition. On the other hand, if the Religious Zionist Party also fails to make it over the minimum threshold, Netanyahu's chances of bringing in 61 seats are nil.
Just like we still don't know how the voters will behave and what the turnout will be, the politicians who make it into the Knesset could also wind up surprising us. Yamina is automatically counted with the right-wing bloc that will give Netanyahu another term if he can rack up 61 seats, but Yamina leader Naftali Bennett hasn't promised that this is what he'll do. Giden Sa'ar promised not to join a Netanyahu government, but will his promise have any relevance if he winds up winning much fewer seats than he expects? Benny Gantz also hasn't said a word for a while. He promised once that he wouldn't join a Netanyahu government, but last time, he didn't keep his word. And that's even before we get to Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas, whose intentions have been unclear from the start.
The elections are still wide open and completely unpredictable. One thing is clear: we shouldn't be surprised if we wind up being very surprised.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
