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Prof. Arnon Ofek

Professor Arnon Ofek serves as deputy director of Sheba Medical Center at Tel Hashomer and is a member of the team that advises Israel's national corona chief

Don't celebrate 4th wave's end too early

As long as the virus continues to run rampant around the world, and there are countries where people have yet to receive a single vaccine dose, there is a chance for mutations to develop.

 

We are now hearing some good news on the coronavirus front, according to which the number of seriously ill is on the decline, as is the number of daily new infections and the reproduction rate. Should this trend continue, the fourth wave of the outbreak will soon be behind us.

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The waning of the fourth wave stems unequivocally from the correct if complex and pioneering decision the State of Israel made to encourage Israelis to receive a third dose of the coronavirus vaccine prior to FDA approval for the booster shot. The decision has been adopted by additional countries around the world and is supported by groundbreaking research carried out in Israel that points to the efficacy of the third vaccine dose and the minimal side effects compared to the short- and long-term damage some of those who recover from the virus suffer from.

Despite the optimism, we must not rush to celebrate, as we did at the conclusion of the previous waves. As long as the virus continues to run rampant around the world, and there are countries where people have yet to receive a single vaccine dose, there is a chance mutations can develop. In addition, evidence of the damage the coronavirus causes is on display in hospital inpatient wards that treat seriously ill patients who recovered from the virus yet remain hooked up to ECMO machines and wait for lung transplants. At Sheba Medical Center at Tel Hashomer, three recovered patients have received lung transplants, and unfortunately, many more continue to wait in line for their turn.

In medicine, caution is warranted as a worldview, and we must learn to live safely alongside the virus. First and foremost, we must learn the lessons of previous waves and anticipate the future. We must implement the green class model that sees students in a class in which one child is infected must be able to provide a negative PCR test before returning to school. At Sheba Medical Center and around the world, this model has proven effective at bringing down infections and significantly decreasing quarantines. Better to take a calculated risk now to allow our children to live normal lives alongside the virus.

Bolster the healthcare system

Beyond this, as with every ceasefire, this is also the time to prepare for the next round. Medical staff stationed on the frontlines have allowed the market to open. ICU teams continue to treat seriously ill coronavirus patients, patients who recovered but remain in serious condition, as well as patients who require treatment under other circumstances. The State of Israel must bolster the health system now.

Compared to Western states, Israel suffers from a lack of ICU beds. After the second wave, the healthcare system presented the government with a plan for an additional 321 beds. This requires ICU staff to undergo the necessary training. The decision to condition the number of positions to be added to the healthcare system on an illogical number of coronavirus patients, which we were lucky to never reach, was a grave mistake. I hope we won't have to pay a heavy price for this decision down the line.

Another lesson we must internalize is that there is a need to close the loopholes at Ben-Gurion International Airport. It cannot be that two years into a pandemic, no solution has been found to prevent new mutations from entering Israel. At the same time, a campaign must be launched to convince the unvaccinated and those who have not received a third dose of the vaccine to get the shot. There must also be tougher punishments for coronavirus deniers who spread false information.

The waning of the fourth wave is proof of the winning recipe of cooperation between the government, the health system, and Israel's citizens. If we join forces now, we can defeat the coming waves.

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