In Lebanon, the votes were still being counted in the wake of Sunday's parliamentary elections, but preliminary results indicate that not much will change in the beleaguered country. Hezbollah will continue doing as it pleases while leaning on a corrupt elite class (the local version of "mafia" families in the US) – which will also remain in control of Lebanese society and state affairs.
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These notable families exploit and exacerbate ethnic tensions to keep their grip on power. They occasionally fight among themselves and after every election, we see new faces – but these are simply a younger version of their predecessors, or sometimes the relatives of a rival family who managed to defeat their competitors in elections.
The essence, however, remains unchanged – it is a weak, helpless country, currently a failing state, which allows the Lebanese elites to continue doing as they please.
We must bear in mind that Lebanon's election system is complex and even many Lebanese people struggle to understand it. Elections are regional and ethnic. In other words, every region elects is representatives, but these are divided among the different ethnic groups according to a predetermined allocation. In such a reality, there's no chance of a popular groundswell of protest to rising; while no desire for change, of which we've seen plenty in recent years in Lebanon, will translate into anything tangible after election day.
Hezbollah and its supporters have apparently managed to secure the necessary majority for a government. After all, members of the Sunni Hariri family, the main force challenging Hezbollah in recent years, decided not to partake in the fixed game and didn't run at all in the elections – thus leaving Lebanon's Sunnis (nearly one-third of the population) without effective leadership.
However, at the end of the day, these elections are a blow to Hezbollah from which it will struggle to recover: First, the voting numbers in all of Lebanon are low, with just 41% of eligible voters bothering to show up. In the country's Shiite areas, voter turnout was even lower. This can be viewed as an expression of anger and lack of faith toward Hezbollah, which failed in its efforts to rally popular support.
Second, many of Hezbollah's allies among the other ethnic groups lost in the regions in which they ran against their rivals, who openly criticized their alliance with Hezbollah. Among the Christians, for example, President Michel Aoun's party suffered a trouncing, as did Hezbollah's Druze allies.
These aren't the results Hezbollah wished for, but it can live with them as long as its control over the country remains intact. Ultimately, despite those in Lebanon currently celebrating isolated victories, this is a poor man's joy, and what was, will continue to be, in Lebanon.
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