After a few rough days, some cautious optimism was finally heard in Israel, with the belief that calm could be reached in the burning southern arena.
This cautious optimism is based on two main reasons: the arrival of an Egyptian security mission for talks, and the relative fall in incendiary balloons launched Sunday. The second reason should be taken with a grain of salt and monitored over several more days before determining whether it is a trend. But the Egyptian delegation is significant, as they have had experience in calming tensions over the years. The Egyptian contingent was in Ramallah for talks on Sunday with the Palestinian Authority, and it is expected to continue to Gaza in an effort to lower the flames between Hamas and Israel.
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In internal discussions held over the past few days, within the defense establishment, there is a belief among analysts that Hamas has no interest in escalating the situation throughout Gaza. The latest events are mainly due to the financial distress in the Strip, and part of Hamas' effort to overcome it, at least partially. The organization is interested – alongside the continuation of Qatari funding for as long as possible – to renew a series of civilian projects, in an attempt to boost the morale of the residents of Gaza, and it is also interested in once again getting the attention of the international community, which has shifted to Lebanon after the disaster in Beirut.
Israel is willing to go towards Hamas on this issue, but only after a complete cessation of the launching of incendiary balloons from Gaza. As part of the attempt to convey a message of carrot and stick to Hamas, Israel has significantly intensified the economic and military pressure on the Strip over the past few days. As part of these efforts, the Air Force struck various targets in Gaza in recent nights (also as part of the retaliation for launching a rocket toward Sderot two days ago) and even worse for Palestinians – Israel has shuttered the border crossing at Kerem Shalom, has completely prohibited use of Gaza's fishing zone, and has cut the amount of fuel it transfers to Gaza.
These steps directly affect the residents of the Strip, and Hamas indirectly. The meaning of less fuel is less hours of electricity, the meaning of less goods is less economic activity, and the meaning of less fishing is real distress on the Gazan street. It is doubtful that Hamas will be able to withstand the internal pressure for long; and that is exactly what Israel is hoping for, that it will order the cessation of balloon launching, which will allow for calm to return to the communities around the Strip.
But even if the Egyptians manage to bridge between the sides, these agreements will be fragile and temporary. Israel conditions any progress for long–term agreements on solving the issue of the captured and missing soldiers and citizens. Officials involved in this are doubtful this is even possible at the moment, due to the considerable demands of Hamas, to which Israel is unwilling to give in. Progress will only be possible if Hamas shows "significant flexibility," as they say.
Meanwhile, the Israeli efforts focus on returning calm to the communities surrounding the Strip. The damage that the fires cause is minor compared to those in the summer of 2018, but one must not underestimate their influence on the morale of residents who live in the area.
As always, they show resilience and durability, but it would be best for the state to assist them in many civilian issues that bother them – from the widening of Route 232, to canceling the outrageous demand that farmers in the area fund the laying of a new water pipe in the area – and strengthen them ahead of the next rounds of violence that are expected in the area.
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