There is a remarkable shift in the Greek foreign policy during the second prime ministership of Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The Athens Declaration on Friendly Relations and Good-Neighbourliness that was signed in December 2023 between Greece and Türkiye professes Mitsotakis' orientation of the Greek foreign policy. The amelioration of the Greco-Turkish relations is a foreign policy priority in this second term as it is being implemented under Foreign Minister Georgios Gerapetritis, a close confidant of Mitsotakis.
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On Feb. 14 , 2024, President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Egypt. In an effort to rebuild Türkiye's relations between itself and the regional powers, Erdoğan agreed with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi to evaluate the bilateral energy and defense relations. Türkiye has also agreed to supply Egypt with drones and cutting-edge military technology.
Türkiye's intervention in Africa is multifaceted. It concludes defense agreements as the security maritime deal with Somalia. Undoubtedly, it is one of the largest arms dealers in Africa that mostly sells its Turkish-made Bayraktar drones to many countries in which is also militarily involved and has established critical strongholds as in Libya, Senegal, Mali, Nigeria, Uganda, Ethiopia, Morocco. Following the well-known strategy arms for influence Türkiye aims at increasing its political influence in international organizations where the African caucus flourishes as in the United Nations.
Türkiye is moving beyond normalization. It seeks to strengthen its diplomatic ties while transforming them into strategic. This exact pattern was attempted with the State of Israel. The rapprochement between Türkiye and Israel died because of the October 7th massacre and the close relations between Türkiye and Hamas. Greece should study close the aforementioned paradigm.
During the first term of Kyriakos Mitsotakis' party in power (2019-23), Greece's foreign policy was undoubtedly proactive. Nikos Dendias, the then Foreign Minister and current Minister of Defense led an intense diplomatic activity in the sub-Saharan and Western Africa. The result was an upgraded presence of Greece in the region.
Dendias was the first Greek Foreign Minister that ever-visited Niger, Senegal, Cabo Verde, Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa and Rwanda. Along with increased diplomatic activity with old partners as Egypt, Israel, Morocco, Algeria and Libya, the aim was to broaden the geography of Greece's foreign policy in the Sahel.
Despite the difficult times of the pandemic, the irregular flows of migrants from Turkey, the war in Ukraine, Greece dared and achieved an unprecedented diplomatic activity in the Balkans, the Middle East and in Africa.
Hence, a legit question arises on the consequences for Greece should it not act proactively against Turkey's infiltration in Africa considering on the one hand, Türkiye's importance for the USA to counterbalance China and Russia in this region and on the other, Turkish revisionism that remains in the core of Erdogan's foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Currently, Greece follows religiously the Good Neighborliness with Türkiye. Greece's strategy to negotiate its vital interests with Türkiye based on a 'positive agenda' while the latter continues to question the status quo of Greek islands and territorial waters soon after the Athens Declaration raises questions on Greece's position as a rational actor.
A rational actor should not only be able to read a sub-regional system but also to discern if his designed strategy can be implemented in a fluctuating environment. Greece's wish to deliver as an honest broker in regional conflicts may end up in undesirable outcomes should not be strategized and implemented cautiously.
Türkiye's arms for influence strategy together with a fierce rhetoric against Israel aims at undertaking a central role at the day after the war as the honest broker along with Qatar and Egypt. The Palestinian authority seems to assign to Turkey this role, too. On his three-day visit Mahmood Abbas is set to discuss the Gaza war and reconciliation efforts between Palestinian factions with President Erdoğan in Ankara. Therefore, how much room is left for Greece to act as an honest broker without jeopardizing both its vital interests and strategic affairs?
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