Even without knowing what exactly prompted Hamas to decide to end the weekly protests on the Gaza border starting next week, and restart them at the end of March on a monthly, rather than weekly, basis, one thing is clear: the heads of the organization want a ceasefire, and are willing to do everything to void their plans being foiled.
Hamas has taken a huge step. The protests, which began on Land Day in 2018, were a tool Hamas used to secure its interests on the agenda, and force Israel to the negotiating table. They allowed Hamas not only to channel the public outrage at the deteriorating economic situation in Gaza against Israel, but also to maintain a permanent, if marginal, combat front that would remind Israel of the price it could pay if it didn't make a move toward a ceasefire deal.
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Over the past 20 months, many of the incidents of rocket fire on southern Israel started with the border protests, to avenge the Palestinian rioters who were killed. Hamas wasn't always behind the responses to the protests, but it was solely responsible for the protests themselves. It organized them, publicized them, and took care to bus in participants – first adults, and in the past few months young children, sometimes under 10 years old, knowing that the IDF would avoid harming kids.
From the time the protests started, Israel had made an end to them a precondition for any ceasefire talks. Israel hasn't always stuck to that line – talks took place even as the protests continued – but it appears that Hamas now wants to send a signal to Israel that it is serious. Nor was this the first signal from Gaza: In the past few months, Hamas has consistently refrained from firing any rockets at Israel, even during the tense days that followed the assassination of Baha Abu al-Ata in early November. Since then, Hamas has canceled most of its border demonstrations for fear it could lose control if things got out of hand, thereby dragging it into an undesirable escalation.
Hamas' decision might also have to do with the winter weather and the concern that many people would prefer to stay at home in the rain of January and February. Still, it was a mainly strategic move: the organization wants a deal so it can work on rehabilitating Gaza. It is afraid that if the current situation there – particularly the high unemployment and collapsing infrastructure – continues, Gazans will further lose faith in Hamas and turn to its opponents.
As it is, Hamas is having a tough time enforcing its authority. The rocket fire on Ashkelon Wednesday as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was speaking at a Likud event is proof of that. Like similar incidents in the past, that rocket was fired by rogue groups (apparently the Palestinian Islamic Jihad), who mostly wanted to create chaos. Hamas carries out plenty of internal security actions to keep its opponents in check, but its main response to criticism from home should be a deal with Israel that would bring quiet that would lead to an improved economic outlook for Gaza.
After putting its two main cards – rocket fire and the weekly border fence protests – on the table, Hamas is left with only one bargaining chip: the bodies of two Israeli soldiers and the living Israeli captives it is holding. It's doubtful Hamas will give those up as easily as the protests and the rockets, and it might be Israel that will have to make some gesture or concession, humanitarian or otherwise, to move talks toward a long-term deal.
Top political and military officials are in agreement about the need to move ahead toward a deal with Hamas. The main reason is Israel's desire to focus on the Iranian threat and the country's northern front, but there is also an understanding that Israel now has a unique opportunity because its interests and those of Hamas are in alignment. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi said as much in a speech he gave Wednesday, but the ball is in the hands of the politicians, who are facing a dilemma – the political echelon needs to be "tough" ahead of the March election, but also needs to ease conditions for the Palestinians in Gaza to prevent a war.
It is clearly in Israel's interest to make a ceasefire deal with Gaza a priority. This would also give the residents of the western Negev the quiet they long for. The political decision-makers would have to rise above political considerations – coalition and opposition – and take advantage of the moment to finish the process. If they don't, Hamas could find itself backed into a corner, and then it will first relaunch the protests in March, as promised, and could move on to a military escalation, which Israel certainly doesn't want.
