To thoroughly understand the current tension on the norther border, we should look at Lebanon. The land of cedars is engulfed by social unrest, political instability, and one of the worst economic crises in its history, all of which could affect the situation in that area.
If the tension on the border escalates to a full-out military clash between the IDF and Hezbollah, any retaliatory action by the organization will be just one of the reasons why. Hezbollah is at a low point; its status in Lebanon has been badly hurt, and it is being blamed for the crisis. Many in Lebanon are claiming that because Hezbollah controls the government and follows Tehran's dictates, Hezbollah has effectively turned Lebanon into an Iranian satellite state.
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Recently, there has been increasing demand in Lebanon to de-arm Hezbollah, with people arguing that because it is a political party, it cannot maintain an armed militia that threatens the police.
If in the past there was an assumption that Lebanon's domestic crisis would keep Hezbollah from attacking Israel and once again dragging Lebanon into a cycle of destruction, that view has changed completely. It is possible that because of its deteriorating status at home, Hezbollah could attack Israel and even cause a military conflict to prove to the Lebanese people how vital a role it plays in protecting them from the Zionist enemy.
The US Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which aims to punish entities that support the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, as well as other economic sanctions that recently took effect, have struck a major blow not only to Hezbollah's financial activity, but also to the citizens of Lebanon. The latter are watching their local currency lose value, the cost of living rise, and inflation run rampant. All this bolsters concerns that Hezbollah will try to distract the people of Lebanon from their day-to-day struggles through an armed conflict with Israel.
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