The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, coming just as Iran appeared to be buckling under the weight of the blows it had suffered, has taken many back to November 2024. That was when, under US pressure, a ceasefire was declared to end the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Back then, too, the ceasefire came as a surprise and even carried a bitter aftertaste, as it was seen as a lifeline to Hezbollah, which had been brought to its knees by Israel's assault. There were widespread concerns the ceasefire would enable the terrorist group to regroup and eventually return to threaten Israel once more.
And yet, surprisingly, the Lebanese ceasefire model, with its conditional terms allowing Israel full freedom of action against any threats or violations, has thus far proven effective. Israel kept up the pressure on Hezbollah, with full American backing, and struck the group whenever it tried to smuggle weapons into Lebanon or rebuild its capabilities. The outcome was clear in the war with Iran: Hezbollah refrained from breaching the quiet along the border, even under Iranian pressure and temptation to join the fight.
This Lebanese model must now be replicated in Iran. Only such an approach can ensure the war's gains are preserved, gains that are not only substantial but historic. Over the 12-day First Iran War, Israel redrew the regional landscape and became the dominant military power in the Middle East, sidelining Iran and leaving Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Turkey trailing behind.
Since the ayatollahs seized power in Tehran 46 years ago, their regime has relentlessly pursued a sphere of influence stretching from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean. Iran established proxies and bases across the Arab world, in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Gaza and Lebanon. To cement this control, it worked to develop nuclear capabilities and an arsenal of missiles capable of striking anywhere in the Middle East, and potentially Europe.
The destruction of Israel was viewed as a necessary step toward Iran's vision of regional hegemony and aligned with the ideological aims of the ayatollahs' regime. Iran invested hundreds of billions of dollars into this campaign, known as the "Axis of Resistance", or as Israelis call it, the "Axis of Evil", making it the regime's central, and perhaps sole, strategic objective.
All of this now lies in ruins. Over the past two years, Iran's strongholds in Gaza, Beirut and Damascus have been dismantled. Its nuclear program has been eliminated, and its long-range missile project has been severely damaged. The war has rolled back the ayatollahs to where they began nearly 50 years ago, stripping them of the vast resources that could have been used to build the country and improve the lives of its people. Every Iranian now sees this failure, and one day, inevitably, the regime will face a reckoning.
Yet the Iranian regime remains determined to rebuild and resume its campaign. It makes no effort to conceal these intentions, as its very identity and raison d'être are rooted in the struggle to destroy Israel and impose its will on the region.
It is therefore essential to reach an understanding with the US, similar to the Lebanese case. Despite the differences between the two theaters, Israel, and the US, must retain the freedom to act whenever they detect a growing threat or any attempt by Iran to revive its nuclear or missile projects.
Otherwise, the countdown to the next round of conflict with Iran will begin, and the hard-won achievements of this war will be lost.
