It is hard to exaggerate the volatility of the Palestinian arena over the coming week. Every attack, every move, every mistake could lead to a massive conflagration that radiates across Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria, the Gaza Strip, and possibly beyond.
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The focus is of course Jerusalem. Forces active on social media succeeded in instilling the sense that Al-Aqsa is under threat. The images and texts coming out over the last 24 hours, alongside calls for action and revenge, led the security system to raise the alert levels. Another battalion was dispatched to the Palestinian territories, Wednesday, and additional police forces were sent into Jerusalem. Aerial defense systems have also been reinforced.
The events in east Jerusalem may have been spontaneous, but there are powers with multiple interests behind them. Hamas is interested in stirring things up in Jerusalem and the West Bank to reinforce its influence there following the cancellation of Palestinian Authority elections. It is also interested in establishing a new balance of deterrence with Israel that relies not only on what transpires on the southern front but includes Jerusalem as well. In other words, Hamas wants to present itself as the protector of Jerusalem and is signaling to Israel – as the group's terrorist mastermind Mohammed Deif made clear in an unusual statement last week – that any event in the capital could spur a response from Gaza.
Hamas may not be interested in an escalation in Gaza, but it wants to stay in the game and even appear as the one who is managing it. That's why it will try to act without provoking an Israeli response. That is why it has approved the return of the incendiary balloons and sabotage squads at the border fence, as well as the explosions near the border aimed at disrupting local residents' lives. The terrorist group will, however, likely avoid the kind of massive rocket fire that would see Israel respond in such a way that leads to an escalation. While we may see rockets launched at Israel in the coming days, this will be done in such a way that avoids putting Hamas and its assets at risk.
Israel cannot accept this balance and must therefore act to disconnect Gaza from the West Bank and Jerusalem. The path to that end runs through several largely diplomatic paths. Although unlikely to suffice, on Saturday, Jerusalem sent the message via Cairo, Amman, and other officials that it would act to rein in Hamas and calm the Palestinian arena. Given the weak standing of PA President Mahmoud Abbas, who has been caught between a desire for quiet and a need to support whoever comes out in defense of Al-Aqsa, there is no one in the field Israel can cooperate with to restore calm.
This is a dangerous situation in which things could spiral out of control at any minute. That's what happened on the Temple Mount, Tuesday night, and the assessment is that the violence will continue in the coming days. Its intensity will to a great extent be determined by the events and the Israeli response to them. Therefore, the guidelines issued to police forces and the military, Saturday, were aimed at containing the events as much as possible and doing everything to avoid a major response that leads to casualties and provokes a counter-response.
The series of events we are likely to witness over the coming week, however, raise concerns as to what is to come. The conclusion of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan will see tens of thousands of Muslims ascend the Temple Mount for prayers. This will be immediately followed by the Eid al-Fitr holiday that concludes Ramadan, which in turn will be followed by Nakba Day marking the displacement of Palestinian refugees during Israel's War of Independence, and the Jewish holiday of Shavuot. With calls for terrorist attacks being issued, the security system will be stretched to its limit.
The events will see the Israel Defense Forces, beginning Sunday, caught up in a month of war, in which we will observe simultaneous escalation scenarios on several fronts. There may be some confusion between the reality on the ground and the scenarios the security forces have been preparing for: In exercises, the principal challenge has been the northern front, but the reality in the Palestinian arena could present the IDF with challenges that are no less complex.
One of the main challenges facing the IDF is the need to thwart the impending terrorism wave that threatens to break out. Given recent events, the number of alerts issued by the Shin Bet security agency for both lone wolf and organized attacks has increased significantly. One such attack was thwarted in northern Samaria, Friday, thanks to the early preparations by GOC Central Command Tamir Yadai and the professionalism of Border Police forces on the scene. The person managing the event, in which two terrorists were taken out, was a female fighter, in further testimony to the successful integration of women in IDF combat roles and the Border Police.
The reality unfolding in the territories and their potential to lead to an escalation have caught Israel in a politically sensitive situation that requires decision-makers and commanders in the field to have nerves of steel and avoid any provocative statements or actions. Security forces would also be wise to ensure they prevent individuals who incite from arriving at friction points in Jerusalem. The situation there is already dangerous, there's no need to feed the fire.
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