Over the weekend, major news broke. First, we had reports on a major crisis unfolding in the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran that reportedly jeopardizes the entire deal. The second was the supposed shift in Israeli policy in Syria, which has reportedly led to Russia taking action to curtail Iranian activity.
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As always, the headlines were bombastic but were very different from the actual truth. It's not that there is nothing to report, but there is nothing definitive. In both cases, what we have is trench warfare, with both sides trying to gain points and shift their strategies in order to gain the upper hand ahead of the next round of talks. When it comes to Iran, the main disagreements are on the International Atomic Energy Agency investigations into Iran's alleged violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: three open cases that came into being due to the nuclear archive obtained by Israel's Mossad in 2018. They involved alleged violations that took place before the 2015 deal and to which Iran has refused to provide satisfactory explanations.
Iran now insists that those cases be shut before any new deal comes into effect. The US has justifiably refused, not just because this would reward Iran for the violations, but because it would signal to any other country that it could do the same thing without consequence. In order to pressure the West, Iran has refused to sign off on a mechanism that would deal with this matter separately so that a deal could be finalized.
Mossad Director David "Dadi" Barnea will visit Washington this week to try to convince officials to toughen their negotiating stance on Iran, but his chances of success are doubtful. That said, it will have been a success even if the US only stays firm in refusing the Iranian demands on the IAEA investigations.
If this scenario unfolds and the Iranian talks end without a deal, Israel and the US would then have to coordinate the action moving forward, especially if Iran continues to make steady advances – albeit slowly – toward a nuclear bomb.
Barnea will discuss the Iranian efforts to carry out terrorism and smuggle weapons into various hot spots in the region, mainly Syria and Lebanon. It is likely that he will warn his interlocutors that the situation is highly combustible. The most recent attacks that Israel has reportedly carried out against Syrian airfields may have been aimed at disrupting Iranian cargo planes and stopping shipments of weapon systems, but they were also designed to pressure Syria and Russia. The former wants Iran to lower its profile on its soil, but it is too weak to impose its will; the latter acts only when its interests are threatened. The most recent attacks have even led Russia – according to unverified reports – to insist that Iran move its militias from Russian forces.
This military pressure in Syria will likely continue in the near term, although the alleged Israeli resolve to counter Iranian shipment has been met with an equal degree of determination on the part of Iran.
Meanwhile, Israel has been able to maintain deterrence on the northern front. If something could disrupt this equilibrium it is the ongoing dispute with Lebanon over the Karish gas field.
The next few weeks could usher in a new reality if Lebanon and Israel do sign a new border agreement. Not only would this be an official document that has both Israel and Lebanon as signatories – with all of the implications – it would also provide a clear pathway for Lebanon's economic recovery, which could put off the prospects of hostilities.
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