Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh told Arab media outlets on Friday he was "optimistic" about the possibility of a prisoner exchange deal with Israel, and that his terrorist organization was "ready for indirect talks."
As of now, no such talks are taking place; not indirectly and not via German, Swiss or any other interlocutors. A prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas will only go through the Egyptians, and according to sources in Egypt no talks are presently ongoing and there is no concrete proposal on the table beyond the declarations of Yahya Sinwar and other Hamas leaders in the Arab and Palestinian press. So what is really going on? Hamas is dropping to its knees to catalyze a deal.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
Why now? There are numerous and varied reasons, chiefly the fact that the organization's options for perpetrating violent provocations, such as rocket fire and operations along the security fence, are impractical because an escalation would trigger a harsh Israeli response as long as the world's attention is focused on the coronavirus – and Gaza, after all, is of no interest to anyone right now. Not even to Arab countries.
Another key reason is that an escalation started by Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad won't just prompt strong retaliation from the IDF, it will put the kibosh on Israeli aid to Gaza to help cope with the coronavirus pandemic.
Hamas, therefore, is in desperate need of a diplomatic win. A deal with Israel for the release of prisoners, medical aid and other humanitarian gestures for Gaza will grant the organization something to show the population.
On the Israeli side, officials are aware of Hamas' desperation and cognizant of the fact that the present situation is a good opportunity to strike a deal at a reasonable price. According to Egyptian sources, Israel doesn't want a "reasonable" price, rather to pay the bare minimum and to avoid a firestorm of domestic public criticism.
This is a gamble on Israel's part, as defense officials think Hamas can lower its demands even more. Time will tell if this is a prudent move.
In my estimation, Hamas currently needs this deal far more than Israel and still hasn't made its final offer. It appears that Sinwar and his people, who are stuck in Gaza, will be the first to blink in this game of poker, while Haniyeh and other senior members of Hamas' political bureau feel safe in their luxury hotels and suites abroad.
In the meantime, during his interview with Gaza-based Al-Araby TV on Friday, Haniyeh added that "the matter of prisoners remains the main priority of our people and of Hamas, and freeing our prisoners is a commitment. The coronavirus threatens the lives of the prisoners in the occupation's jails, and we hold the enemy completely responsible for their wellbeing."
In Haniyeh's words: "We've conducted talks for five years on the matter of [former captive Gilad] Schalit] and were able to achieve a victory. We are always optimistic we will get what we want and the battle with the enemy is open. We have 500 prisoners serving life sentences, and the Palestinian Authority needs to establish a unified strategy for freeing prisoners."
The prisoner exchange proposed by Hamas' leader in Gaza, Sinwar, would be carried out in two stages, similar to the Schalit deal, Arab and Palestinian media outlets have reported.
According to those reports, as a first condition, Hamas is suggesting a preliminary deal in the first phase to build trust, which would entail Israel's release of several dozen elderly and sick prisoners, and a similar number of women and minors imprisoned in Israel, and in return Hamas will provide information about Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, Israeli civilians who crossed the border into Gaza and are being held captive by the organization.
In the second stage of the proposed deal, Israel will release Palestinian prisoners based on a list Hamas will provide, in exchange for the return of fallen IDF soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin, whose bodies the terrorist organization has been holding since Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014.
