It seems that the Biden administration has been dragging its feet with regard to the Iran nuclear deal for eternity. "Time is running out" we have been hearing from Washington for an entire year now, but magically, it continues to push back the deadline.
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The United States is deceiving itself, and the world, and it has not gone unnoticed by Israeli officials involved in the matter. But they bite their tongue and refrain from criticizing what many perceive as weakness exhibited by President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Special Representative for Iran Robert Malley because Israel has adopted a much more restrained approach with the US administration.
It understands that Biden has much greater international troubles, with some saying that they arose as a result of his weakness. The biggest one is, of course, Russia's threat to Ukraine.
It is clear by now that Biden does not intend to confront Russian President Vladimir Putin in the event he invades Ukraine. What he has done is take preventative measures on other fronts, including sending military aid to Poland and the Baltic states to deter Moscow.
Some experts say Biden is also looking for energy alternatives to Russian gas. As such, he will kill two birds with one stone: remove Putin's threat to withhold gas from Europe and have the ability to impose immediate action on Russia, which, in the long run, will free Europe from the threats.
Journalists in Washington believe that this was the key issue in the meeting between Biden and Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, with the White House saying that the two "reaffirmed their mutual interest in … ensuring the stability of global energy supplies."
So while Israelis and their tourist groups are eyeing the United Arab Emirates – a significant player in its own rights – our small neighbor to the West is gaining momentum.
Tiny Qatar houses the world's largest natural gas field. Even before work on the field was completed, the Gulf nation was defined as the third-largest global gas supplier, after Russia and Iran. The latter is subjected to international sanctions, and as long as no agreement is reached with regard to the nuclear deal, it cannot market its product. The former supplies gas to many European countries, but it is precisely this dependence on Russian gas that the US is said to be attempting to remove.
Qatar is also emerging as a political power. At the end of 2022, it will host the FIFA World Cup, an achievement subject to various bribery investigations. Doha also stepped in to aid Afghanistan after the US withdrawal, evacuating no less than 60,000 refugees, having received permission from the Taliban to manage the country's airports (with Turkey).
The US administration's many remaining interests in Afghanistan, including the evacuation of Americans still there, make Qatar even more important.
Along with Russia and Afghanistan, Qatar is also vital in order to convey messages to Iran. Al-Thani excels at both hosting US military bases in Qatar and maintaining good ties with neighboring aggressor Iran.
Shortly before meeting with Biden, al-Thani met with senior officials in Tehran. It is unclear what they spoke about, but it may be an alternative channel for the regime to convey to the US messages on the nuclear deal and the release of Iranian prisoners from US jails.
This is where Israel comes into the picture. Qatar is a major Palestinian Authority and Hamas backer. It also has a long-standing rivalry with the United Arab Emirates, which was the first Gulf nation to sign a peace agreement with Israel, a step we know Qatar cannot envision.
Jerusalem is working toward normalization with Doha, and although an agreement with another Arab country would be beneficial, we must remember that, unlike the UAE, Qatar has not changed its ideology.
Al-Thani supports the Muslim Brotherhood and finances Al Jazeera. Unlike the UAE and Bahrain, he does not believe in moderation, but in interests alone. Moreover, growing ties between Jerusalem and Doha might not bode well with Abu Dhabi.
As such, those working toward a normalization deal with Qatar must be aware of the possible negative consequences.
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