Western European countries, and apparently some states in the US, are like an out-of-control train speeding ever faster toward the side of a mountain. In light of the Italian test case and in accordance with basic epidemiological principles, decisionmakers in these countries are now internalizing a simple fact: At such a late stage, and due to their insufficient efforts at the start of the crisis to contain the coronavirus and close their borders – a tsunami of morbidity continuing for weeks is inevitable.
All they can do now is hold on tightly and wait for impact. Almost 5,000 people have already died in Italy, and the numbers keep rising. The situation in Spain is also dire, with nearly 1,500 dead. France decided to implement a general shutdown only a few days ago, and the French president instructed his people to stay at home and to only leave if absolutely necessary. But the heads of the healthcare systems in these countries know the disease will only start to subside in another three or four weeks.
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Israel's situation is different. The correct decisions were made in a timely fashion; borders were closed, sick people were identified and quarantine protocols were issued. All these bought us an extremely valuable few weeks of time. If we now follow the quarantine directives to the letter, there's a reasonable chance we can escape the fate of Italy and Spain. In this assumption, the morbidity rate in the coming weeks will fall just a hair within the healthcare system's absolute limits, and every critically ill person will receive the best care possible. The mortality rate will be similarly low to the situation in Germany, as opposed to what we're seeing in Italy.
The important question, however, is until when? How long will we have to live in such extreme quarantine conditions? The answer is complicated and depends on several factors. First, we will have to examine the morbidity rate in the coming weeks and determine whether the spread is fast or slow, and whether it's possible to start taking calculated risks.
We should not expect life to return to the way it was a month ago. Social distancing, on-line school and medical appointments will just be a part of our lives in the months ahead. But significantly expanding the scope of testing for the virus, including blood tests to determine morbidity or recovery, will provide us an "exit window" from complete quarantine.
This strategy will be predicated on the timely detection of as many infected people as possible in their early stages and putting them in quarantine. And on releasing those who have recovered from quarantine. All this will happen gradually, and it all depends on the public's ability to sufficiently heed the quarantine instructions.
To this end, what is required now is the complete and total separation of family units, to prevent chain infection and stop the spread of the virus in its tracks. This is the duty of each and every one of us, and this is the meaning of mutual responsibility at this time – if even just a few people engage in risky behavior the collateral damage will be immense.
We must not make light of the safety instructions handed down, not even a little. If the entire public adheres to them, we will traverse these coming weeks in one piece.
