Winter is late to arrive on the east coast this year. It's already early December, Christmas is in three weeks, and there's no snow on the horizon. Of course, this doesn't mean Washington hasn't begun adorning the streets with holiday decorations: With all due respect to global warming, tradition is tradition.
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On the surface, the White House is also in on the fun. Decorations can be found on all the windows, and the national Christmas tree is already out in all its glory. Inside, of course, the mood is significantly bleaker. The new coronavirus variant is a source of great consternation for the administration, which has already imposed new travel restrictions. This has soured the general mood, which wasn't particularly good to begin with in light of US President Joe Biden's dismal approval ratings.
The senior Israeli officials expected to visit Washington this week – Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Mossad director David Barnea – will encounter an administration with very little available bandwidth for our problems. Domestically, as stated, the focus is on the pandemic as well as recent school shootings; while Washington's gaze abroad is fixed on Russia and reports that Moscow is preparing to invade Ukraine. In an effort to show its fangs and deter the Kremlin, the administration warned that such a move would have significant ramifications. A quick review of the Biden administration's policy of employing force indicates that Russia has no need to worry: The last thing the administration wants is conflicts.
Israel, on the other hand, needs to be very worried. Although the administration is saying Tehran "does not seem to be serious" about the nuclear talks in Vienna and that "other options" were available if the talks fail, it sounds more like a toothless threat. Washington, however, whose approach to Iran was criticized with growing intensity by Israeli officials last week, understands that Israel, too, has put itself in a very problematic position with very few good cards left to play.
The current Israeli campaign is focused on trying to influence the deal, which is still far from being finalized. The administration is very eager to sign a deal, take Iran off the agenda, and turn its entire focus on China and Russia. The Iranians recognize this and are digging in their heels. From their perspective – unlike the Americans – returning to the deal now is an option, not an obsession. They have learned to live under economic sanctions and have impressively used their time to advance their nuclear program and other strategic objectives – namely manufacturing and methodically delivering precision missiles and drones to their various proxies across the region.
Under these circumstances, Washington could consent to the worst of all worlds: A partial deal (less for less), consisting of partial sanctions relief in exchange for the cessation of uranium enrichment. Israel is trying to fight this option with all its might but doesn't have Washington's full attention. While the US defense establishment sees eye-to-eye with Israel on the Iranian threat, the political echelon – represented most extremely and problematically by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken – looks at Iran through rose-colored glasses.
"We won't fall from our chairs if we find out that direct, secret talks between Washington and Tehran are taking place," a senior Israeli official said over the weekend, with good reason. On the eve of the original 2015 nuclear deal, the Obama administration hid from Israel the secret talks it had been holding with the ayatollah regime in Oman.
Israel needs to demand transparency from the US, at the very least, not to mention clear answers. If a deal is finalized, what do they want it to include, and if not – what will happen? Are additional sanctions on the table, and are the Americans in any way willing to put the military option back on the table. As things currently appear, Washington's answer is no, which means Israel alone must determine its future strategy against the Iranian nuclear program, and the avenues at its disposal to implement it. The way to do this is behind closed doors, not through public declarations via the press that mostly signal distress. As always, anyone who wants to shoot, should shoot, not talk.
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