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Prof. Eyal Zisser

Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University.

Israel is winning against Iran, at least for now

The Israeli attack near Damascus was a great military and intelligence success, and it sends a message to Iran that we will always uncover its terrorist plots.

The Israeli Air Force managed to thwart a terrorist attack by Iran's Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force on Sunday night.

The foiled attack, which was likely to have taken place well within Israeli territory by means of drones, was probably designed to serve as retaliation for the alleged Israeli strikes on Iranian assets in Syria and Iraq as of late.

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It appears that Israel's success in denying Iran a permanent military presence in Syria, and its successful efforts to target Iran and its allies across the region, has enraged the Revolutionary Guards, leading them to take the unusual step of launching a (now-foiled) terrorist attack.

Quds Force Commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani was probably certain that the attack would be successful, to the point that he apparently leaked his plans to an Iranian paper Kayhan.

The paper warned last week that Israel would wake up one day and discover that its population centers had been attacked by Iranian drones. But it turned out that it was Iran that woke up to discover its plans had been thwarted.

The Israeli attack near Damascus was a great military and intelligence success, and it sends a message to Iran that its plots will be discovered and thwarted by Israel.

This is not enough to stop Iran from carrying out hostile acts, but in this protracted match between Israel and Iran, the former has so far scored more points.

But the attack also sends a message to Syrian President Bashar Assad and his Russian benefactors. The message is clear: Israel will not sit idly by as Iran continues to use Syria as its forward operating base in its struggle against Jerusalem.

Assad still needs Iran, but not as much as before. One might hope that he wakes up one day and decides that he has had enough of the embarrassment the Shiite militias cause.

Assad might decide to pressure Iran, with Russian backing, to scale back its activity. Israel's decision to publicly claim responsibility for the attack was probably designed to nudge Damascus and Moscow in that direction.

 

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