If you need an indication that nothing is going to come out of the Vienna talks other than total capitulation to Iran's demands should look at the US's reaction to a more immediate and material threat to its closest allies in NATO – the Russian threat on Ukraine. Russia has shown determination, strength and strategic consistency, while the US has no sense of direction – something no superpower can afford, especially when it wants to stand up to the plate and counter the most important challenge of our generation, China's rise.
Tehran and Beijing are watching Biden and NATO and feel at ease. If the West's major powers just want to "return home safely from the battlefront" there is no risk that they will check Iran, and definitely not China.
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Biden's Afghanistan fiasco has hurt him domestically, but that's much less of a concern because it was just a botched operational mission that ended a 20-year strategic failure that involved an unhelpful military deployment. Even the US departure from Iraq and other theaters in the region does not underlie weakness in and of themselves. In fact, in a different context, this would actually signal that the US was putting its resources where they are most needed.
But Biden has consistently shown that he lacks a backbone on all fronts. Just this week, the CIA chief said the US has no indication Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has decided to develop a military nuclear program. It's like a cop trying to stop a bank robbery but then says that he has no proof that the robbers' weapons are loaded.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has massed troops on the border with Ukraine and has been sending plainclothed troops to help pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has vowed a forceful response if Russia invades. But judging by how the US reacted to the annexation of Crimea, Putin can very well assume that the only thing he will face after an invasion is sanctions.
Perhaps it's too early to tell if this time Putin will get all of what he wants, or rather that Biden will come to his senses at the very last moment. Ukraine wants to join NATO and its president has prodded the member states to approve the accession quickly. Even the US secretary of defense has said no member state is going to veto it. But Russia has brandished its capabilities, including its hypersonic weapon technology, should NATO cross its red line by accepting Ukraine. Russia has the edge when it comes to determination, and even if decides not to invade, it will most likely deny it from joining the alliance at zero cost, making a future attack or pro-Russian coup a viable option for the ripe moment.
Israel is once again preparing to operate in an environment with a spineless US (and also, needless to say, a weak EU) on all fronts: Biden has not retaliated for the Iranian attack on a US base; the US has ignored the brazen Iranian effort to assassinate the Iraqi prime minister and impose Tehran's authority on the Shiite militias in Iraq; and the Iranians have shown a lack of seriousness in the Vienna talks.
With the US humiliated in Kabul, in Vienna and the Kiev, Israel must bolster its credibility in Washington, Tehran, Cairo, Riyadh and the Gulf, as a state that is willing to confront Iran forcefully.
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