The rocket fire from Lebanon on Tuesday morning into the Galilee poses a complicated dilemma for Israel, between the need to uphold deterrence and its desire not to escalate the situation on the northern border. IDF officials believe the rockets were launched by Palestinian elements in Lebanon.
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The motive behind the sudden rocket fire wasn't immediately clear and appears unrelated to an overnight airstrike allegedly carried out by Israel in the Aleppo province of northern Syria. Past experience teaches us that such airstrikes primarily target efforts to manufacture and smuggle weapons earmarked for Hezbollah or other pro-Iranian groups operating in Syria, and are not related whatsoever to Palestinian organizations in Lebanon.
The previous rocket attacks from Lebanon occurred during Operation Guardian of the Walls. Those attacks were claimed to have been carried out in solidarity with Gaza. The rationale for the latest attack is unclear, whether it was connected to ongoing developments in the Palestinian arena – from the deadlock in talks between Israel and Hamas, to the Khan al-Ahmar saga, and the widely covered Jewish prayer at the Temple Mount on Tisha B'Av – or to the domestic situation inside Lebanon. In the past, it was claimed such attacks could never happen without the knowledge and approval of Hezbollah. It appears this is no longer the case, at least not absolutely. While it's safe to assume that Hezbollah enjoyed seeing Israel sweat during the recent fighting with Hamas in Gaza, it likely doesn't want to see a conflagration that also engulfs Lebanon.
Hezbollah, at present, is entirely preoccupied with the internal situation in Lebanon. Large swathes of the Lebanese public (along with politicians and pundits) blame the organization and its patron, Iran, for preventing international aid to the country due to their control of numerous state organs, essentially leading to its collapse. It's highly doubtful – considering the current state of affairs whereby the country's Shiites are first in line for food, fuel and medicine in relation to other ethnic groups – Hezbollah would want to exacerbate tensions on the border with Israel and become mired in an escalation that could wreak total devastation on the country.
Hezbollah's interests, however, do not resolve Israel's dilemmas. Assuming it was indeed a Palestinian group that launched the rockets, Israel is still facing a real dilemma in terms of responding. The IDF's immediate response with artillery fire into Lebanese territory was merely obligatory and doesn't generate the necessary deterrence. Pinning responsibility on the Lebanese government (and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's veiled threat) also didn't register deeply in Lebanon, which, as stated, is entirely consumed with its own problems.
Israel, therefore, must act differently. In the immediate term, it must raise alert levels along the northern border to pre-empt any danger and surprise. The deployment of air defenses in the area proved prescient with the interception of one of the rockets, and it's possible that reinforcements are necessary in this regard to bolster deterrence.
Simultaneously, Israel must focus its activity against those who launched the rockets. Following the three rocket attacks from Lebanon during Operation Guardian of the Walls and the most recent one Tuesday, Israel's intelligence services have to be able to identify by name those behind the attacks, along with where they live and operate. Targeting them specifically – covertly or publicly – will send a better message than a thousand declarations and threats.
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