Exactly four weeks have passed since Hamas fired rockets at Jerusalem, and it seems as if we are already on the brink of another escalation in the Gaza Strip. The explosives are already scattered about, but this time around, no one has even bothered to hide them.
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In Gaza, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar openly threatens to set the front ablaze if he doesn't get his suitcases of Qatari cash. At the same time, in a reference to the planned Flag March through Jerusalem's Old City Thursday, he warned he would once again defend the Al-Aqsa Mosque.
For those who may have forgotten, Hamas' excuse for the previous round of fighting was Jerusalem. At the time, following pressure from IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi and Shin Bet security agency chief Nadav Argaman, the route of the march was changed to avoid passing through the Damascus Gate. The march nevertheless went ahead until it was stopped by rockets from Gaza. Today, too, Kochavi and Argaman, along with Defense Minister Benny Gantz, believe authorizing the march to go ahead at this time is a grave mistake because of its volatile potential. They will at the very least recommend participants not be allowed to pass through Muslim neighborhoods of the Old City to limit possible friction and violence.
A discussion on the significance of Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem and whether freely celebrating its unification ought to be banned should and must be held. However, this can and should be done in a manner that takes into consideration the context and timing of the event. Senior defense officials believe going through with the march at this time, when an IDF operation has just wrapped up and the political situation in Israel is charged, could start a large and unnecessary fire that Israel would find it difficult to explain to the world.
On the face of it, Hamas should fear this fire. It sustained difficult blows to its military system in the last campaign that should have made it sit quietly for a time. That was also one of the stated intentions of Operation Guardian of the Walls, alongside the Israeli aspiration to disconnect the organization from Jerusalem. It seems Israel failed to achieve the latter, and its success with the former is in question. Even more troubling is that Hamas does not appear to have been deterred. In fact, Sinwar has emerged even stronger from the operation. His recent speeches overflowed with pathos, and some in the Military Intelligence claim Sinwar is conducting himself like Saladin, the Muslim conqueror who seized Jerusalem from the Crusaders in 1187.
Israel isn't interested in renewing the fighting in Gaza. Not because of the price it would pay, but rather the objective of the fighting in the first place. Absent a decision to launch a ground invasion and defeat Hamas, a continuation of the campaign through the same methods would guarantee more of the same. Kochavi may have ordered the Southern Front to prepare "for another few days of fighting," but it's doubtful that will allow the IDF to achieve what it didn't accomplish in Operation Guardian of the Walls.
If Israel wants to change the equation, it will need to start fighting with all its might before taking things up a notch. It will need to find an opportunity to take out Hamas' military-diplomatic leadership, and Sinwar in particular, and continue the campaign from there. Alternatively, it can speed up current Egypt-mediated talks to reach an understanding that ensures long-term quiet, with all of the implications, both positive and negative, of such a move.
A continuation of the current situation, in which both sides rely on a fragile ceasefire without any conditions or understandings is dangerous and volatile. Hamas has demanded money and understandings on Jerusalem. Israel isn't interested in giving them either. It is willing to transfer money via the Palestinian Authority but only on the condition progress is made on the return of fallen Israeli soldiers and captives held by Hamas. Nor is Israel interested in a return to the "drip, drip, drip" of rockets that could bring about a renewal of fighting.
This obligates Israel to conduct itself calmly, to delineate objectives and targets, and decide what is critical, for example, tying any transfer of funds to agreements, and what is less so - like the planned Flag March through Jerusalem's Old City. If it avoids doing this, it could wind up in a dangerous spiral of violence. For those who need reminding, it is not just Gaza that's on the line; the previous round set the West Bank, the northern border, and Israeli cities ablaze as well, a scenario Israel must now also prepare for.
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