If you believe foreign media reports, Israel has substantially decreased the number of airstrikes it carries in the northern sector over the past few weeks.
The reasons for that are both diplomatic and operational, but this perceived lull may have sent the wrong message – that Israel has taken a step back with regard to the battle it has been waging against Iran's efforts to entrench itself militarily in Syria.
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Wednesday's strike against Iranian assets in Syria was unusual. With it, Israel sought to clarify to the Iranians – and anyone else operating in this theater, including Hezbollah and Syria – that the lull is over, and that Israeli patience for their antics is back to its usual levels, i.e. at zero.
This is also why the IDF claimed the attack almost immediately – a rare move, which was then backed with videos and information that usually remain classified. The Israeli message had to get through to Beirut, Damascus, and Tehran, and now Israel hopes it was heard clearly enough to deter these nefarious forces from mounting any retaliation or future attacks.
The decision to mount a forceful strike at this time was most likely rooted in several motives, first among them was the fact that Iran was so clearly and directly implicated in the attack foiled on the Israel-Syria border, via its notorious Quds Force, the presence of which in Syria is ever-growing.
Another reason is Israel's desire to make Damascus assume responsibility for what transpires in the Syrian Golan. Assuming Syrian President Bashar Assad would like to avoid war with Israel, the latter expects him to take the necessary measures to ensure the border remains quiet.
It is doubtful whether this is a realistic expectation given the abilities of the Syrian army and the limitations it faces vis-à-vis Iran and Hezbollah, and yet – this is Assad's problem to resolve and not doing that will come with a price for his regime.
Hezbollah, for its part, is still trying to exact revenge on Israel for killing one of its operatives last summer in an airstrike near the Damascus airport.
Wednesday's strike also meant to signal to Hezbollah that Israel's patience was running thin and therefore its response to any security incident may not be proportionate or restrained.
As for Iran, the ayatollahs' regime would be wise not to assume that the impending change in administration would inspire a policy shift in Israel with respect to countering Iran's ambitions in the Middle East.
The strike sought to make it clear to Iran that American politics play no part when it comes to Israel's need to protect its own interests in the northern sector, as well as potentially with respect to the nuclear issue.
History has proven that Iran has no problem biding its time when it comes to retaliating on strikes against its assets.
Tehran is likely to now look for a suitable opportunity. This mandates Israel, as always, to remain vigilant and have its air defenses ready to engage.
Most of all, Israel must understand that the circumstances in the northern sector are again changing and that the relative calm in the area has now come to an end.
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