One cannot detach the events of Saturday in the Gaza sector from the ongoing riots in Jerusalem. Hamas wanted to project solidarity with the residents of east Jerusalem and gave recalcitrant groups in Gaza the green light to fire rockets at Israel.
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The result – at least 36 rockets and mortars – was apparently more serious than Hamas originally intended. The subsequent Israeli response was correspondingly serious: After a relatively minor retaliation to the first rocket launch, the counterstrikes became increasingly potent as the rocket fire continued, and the IDF exploited the opportunity to target several facilities connected to Hamas' armament efforts and weapons storage sites.
Hamas already indicated on Saturday that it doesn't want an escalation. It's doubtful it wanted one from the outset; the group wants to see Jerusalem burn, but it doesn't want the wildfire spreading to Gaza – which would overshadow the events in the capital. Hence it will do everything in its power to fan the flames in Jerusalem and simultaneously douse them in the south.
This stems from the fact that the situation in Gaza is good (relatively speaking, it's still Gaza after all) compared to the situation there several months ago. The economy is trending upwards and unemployment is down, as is the COVID-19 morbidity rate. In the coming weeks, toward the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, Hamas is due to receive another cash shipment from Qatar, and it very likely doesn't want to upset the positive momentum at the height of Ramadan. This also explains its efforts to ensure that the rocket fire doesn't extend beyond Gaza-area communities.
Hamas, however, likely won't be able to ignore the strife in Jerusalem if it continues. It is being called out on social media and will have to respond. The IDF, therefore, is making preparations and over the weekend bolstered the south with more Iron Dome batteries and other systems, and placed additional units on alert. Israel is making it clear that it will respond harshly to any more rocket fire, even at the cost of an escalation.
In the senior diplomatic-security assessment on Saturday, however, the riots in Jerusalem were cited as the driving force behind the recent violence and that the brunt of Israel's effort must focus on reducing tensions in the city. To that end, significantly more forces are expected to be deployed there, including the transfer of Border Police companies from Judea and Samaria. The Israel Police was also instructed to implement tougher measures against the rioters – Jews and Arabs alike.
The main concern raised by officials is that the riots are not motivated by one specific cause. Unlike the riots that erupted following the decision to place metal detectors on the Temple Mount in 2017, this time officials can't point to one clear reason for the violence.
It is partly due to Ramadan, partly the pandemic, and partly the videos posted to TikTok that exacerbated tensions. Israel, therefore, can't do anything specific (such as removing the metal detectors) to calm the situation.
Aside from Gaza, the violence in Jerusalem, if it persists, can potentially spread to Judea and Samaria and even beyond – to the northern sector and perhaps even the entire Muslim world. Jerusalem is one issue every Muslim can rally around and Israel must make sure the events in the capital aren't perceived as a religious war. This, as stated, explains Hamas' desire to fan and exacerbate the flames in the capital and is precisely why Israel needs to do all it can to lower them – especially with the Palestinian Authority's parliamentary elections next month and Israel's expected decision to deny east Jerusalem residents from participating.
The concern that events in Jerusalem will escalate and spread to other arenas forced IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi to cancel his work trip to Washington. Kochavi was supposed to meet with top-ranking American generals to discuss Iran, but decided to stay in Israel for the time being – a classic case of a pressing problem delaying something more important. If the current 24 hours are calm, he will still fly to Washington for a shortened visit to join the heads of the Mossad, IDF Military Intelligence Directorate and National Security Council.
These visits are part of Israel's campaign to pressure the Biden administration to reject restoring the original nuclear deal without including amendments, although Israeli officials over the weekend expressed pessimism that these efforts would bear fruit. The belief is that the meetings are merely a courtesy and that the Biden administration has already decided to revive the old deal.
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