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Dr. Zeev Levin

Dr. Zeev Levin is a research fellow at the Central Asia Unit of the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Kazakhstan unrest unlikely to upset international relations

The fear of losing control of the country led the president to call on the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty for aid. Was this a calculated political move or a decision that will threaten Kazakhstan's independence?

 

Looking at the chain of events in Kazakhstan, one can see that this has been an extremely spontaneous, popular uprising that broke out suddenly and wasn't anticipated by the regime or those following the political events in the country.

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At first, the regime tried to contain the protests, which appear to have erupted over soaring fuel prices, but when some of the protesters took a violent turn, leading to casualties among the security forces, and when the demonstrators set fire to state and government buildings, things began to change.

In Kazakhstan, it is unacceptable to attack a member of the security forces, so the regime removed its kid gloves and started bringing armed forces into city centers in order to reinstate order. Maybe it was worth doing that at an earlier phase of the unrest, but it seems that fear of losing control had led President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to enlist the help of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Association (CSTA).

Only time will tell if this was a mistake or not, because one needs perspective in order to properly assess the situation. In my opinion, Tokayev understood that things were moving in the direction of security forces being sent in to deal with the demonstrations, i.e. that there would be civilian casualties, and he preferred that the blame be placed on foreign forces – not only local ones.

Has Kazakhstan's independence been compromized over this move? With all necessary caution, I think that is probably not the case. It could be that this development is being exploited by Tukayev to make significant changes inside the government, in the framework of which he is removing previous President Nursultan Nazarbayev from every role he still has and is also succeeding in moving his allies, thus essentially stepping out from under his shadow, which has loomed over him since he came to power two years ago.

The unrest is also unlikely to impact Kazakhstan's web of international relations. The government promised that the multinational forces that were invited, whose scope is small, will all leave the country within a month, maybe less. Russia doesn't really have a good reason to maintain forces there, but, as it answered the call and came to help Kazakhstan, it can maybe seek to improve its status in the framework of relations between the countries.

What might change, in the international context, is that the deployment of the CSTA will be possible in other places. To send Russian forces, for example, to Belarus, if it will be threatened by new protests, like it experienced last year, when Russia didn't come to its aid. Maybe, in light of the events in Kazakhstan, if Lukashenko will feel threatened in the future, Russia won't be able to refuse a request for help.

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