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Yoav Limor

Yoav Limor is a veteran journalist and defense analyst.

Lightning doesn't strike twice

So-called malfunctions in Hamas' rocket firing systems is not something Israel can tolerate and that is something Gaza's rulers must be made to understand.

 

The Israeli defense establishment on Sunday was content to accept Hamas' version of events citing that the stormy weather caused an equipment malfunction that, in turn, caused accidental rocket fire in the direction of central Israel.

Israel relies not only on the embarrassment in Gaza following the shooting but mainly on the fact that the launching pads from which the rockets were fired were Hamas' – not Islamic Jihad's as it was first assumed.

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Were the PIJ behind the shooting, it could have been chalked up to the first anniversary of the assassination of Islamic Jihad strongman Bahaa Abu al-Ata and therefore contained as the terrorist group's "retaliation."

Hamas, however, has nothing to retaliate against. On the contrary –  it has been trying to prevent Islamic Jihad from firing rockets at Israel fearing it would trigger an escalation it has no desire to provoke. Hamas' interest at this time is to maintain a lull as part of its efforts to reach a long-term ceasefire with Israel under Egyptian mediation.

Sunday saw Gaza's rulers use every avenue at their disposal to relay to Israel that the rocket fire was accidental and triggered by a weather-induced malfunction. Hamas has no interest in provoking a flare-up, the group stressed.

Israel likely already deduced the same when mounting what was a very measured response to the rocket fire. Israel's own desire to avoid escalation aside, such a measured response may not have been the best course of action.

Even if we ignore the highly unlikely chance that a weather-induced malfunction could again trigger accidental rocket fire from Gaza – last year a lightning strike supposedly triggered rocket fire at Beersheba – Israel cannot simply allow the fact that hundreds of thousands of Israelis in southern and central Israel were jolted out of bed in the middle of the night to stand.

Israel must demand that Hamas secures its sensitive systems and make sure that they are protected from malfunctions of any kind, let alone weather-induced ones.

If necessary, Israel must also drive this point home more aggressively than it did so as to make sure Hamas understands some red lines cannot be crossed. Malfunctions don't just happen – they are caused by negligence, poor maintenances, or faulty storage. Hamas must make sure such things do not happen again.

A failure on Israel's part to send a clear message to Hamas could backfire. Gaza's rulers may perceive it as wariness on Israel's part, and while strategically speaking Israel has no interest in fresh hostilities, Hamas has to be made to understand that it cannot unilaterally decide when to dial up tensions. If you cross Israel's red lines, there's no telling what it will do.

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