"I know there's no longer a chance I'll get the rotation," Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz told members of his Blue and White faction last week, effectively making an almost-official declaration of a 2021 election campaign.
Gantz's remark was fuel on the fire for the militant wing of Blue and White that rejects any dialogue with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about postponing a state budget. This wing has been waging the battle over Gantz's head for some time already.
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If it were up to the head of the party, we'd probably get to witness Gantz's tortuous capitulation to Netanyahu in about a month. But it's no longer certain it is up to him. The belligerent forces in the party could turn out to be stronger than he is.
One thing is clear: Netanyahu will not compromise on the 2020 budget, which would give him another "out" to hold an election in March 2021, the deadline for the next budget. He would prefer to dissolve the Knesset in March, but is willing to compromise on this December. He is steadfastly determined not to honor the rotation agreement. True, that would be a violation of the deal he signed, but the way he sees it, Blue and White members have already broken its terms dozens of times.
The fight, therefore, is moving to Blue and White's field. If Netanyahu does not mean to give in, the decision becomes Gantz's to make. He can either buckle, or remain defense minister and alternate prime minister for a few more months. Gantz would become the nation's dishrag, but who knows? His good luck might stick with him this time, too, and against all likelihood, he could become prime minister and have the last laugh. Or he won't give in, which would lead to an election, cause his party to collapse, and probably see him leave politics for good.
But as we've said, it's not certain that the decision is his. When he chose the Blue and White list, he was green. He didn't think about the problems they would cause for him down the line. The same went for the distribution of cabinet portfolios. Instead of giving the justice ministry to Chili Tropper, a pleasant and easygoing person who would not have used his ministry to challenge Netanyahu and other Likud members every chance he got, he appointed Avi Nissankoren, who is a man of conflict, not compromise. Nissankoren is a politician, not a professional, and never missed a chance to get in Netanyahu's face.
Meanwhile, the prime minister sees what is happening in the US and the tailwind his opponents got from Trump's loss, but is also learning quickly and appraising the political situation before everyone else. The news of the promising COVID vaccine arrived too late for Trump, but just in time for Netanyahu, and no one has better diplomatic skills to use to get the vaccine to Israel. Unlike Trump, who dismissed COVID, Netanyahu rolled up his sleeves to tackle it from the first. He came under harsh criticism for the public health and economic costs, but also came off as someone who wasn't resting for a moment. That picture will become sharper the closer we get to Election Day.
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