Operation Breaking Dawn was launched following three days during which the residents of the Israeli communities in the vicinity of the border with Gaza were subject to a virtual lockdown over Palestinian Islamic Jihad's threats. This prompted Israel to be proactive and strike the PIJ before it could execute any of its nefarious plans and drag Israel into the fight on its own terms.
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The IDF's gambit was highly successful as the first strike was able to eliminate a top Islamic Jihad in Gaza Strip within 180 seconds and went on to immediately eliminate terrorist cells about to execute an attack using anti-tank missiles.
True to form, the Islamic Jihad barraged southern Israel with rockets and mortars, but thanks to the Iron Dome defense system and its 95% interception rate, it has made it very difficult to hit central Israel and has caused only minimal damage to property.
The week leading up to Operation Breaking Dawn made it clear to the IDF that the PIJ was itching for a fight. The IDF wasted no time preparing for the campaign, including deploying Iron Dome batteries in central Israel, cordoning off major roads in the south, and outlining the offensive.
However, experience has shown that after marking impressive achievements in the first few days of a conflict with Gaza terrorists, the situation can only go downhill for Israel – so much so that it could render any achievement hollow.
Despite the IDF's statement that it is ready to extend the operation if necessary, it is clear that the defense establishment would rather strive to conclude it sooner, rather than later, while severely crippling the Islamic Jihad's operational capabilities.
As long as Hamas stays out of the conflict, Israel will be able to conclude Operation Breaking Dawn quickly because the Islamic Jihad, for all its might, is still smaller and weaker compared to Gaza's rulers.
The prevailing opinion in the defense establishment is that Hamas prefers to stay out of the fight – especially after Israel has made it clear its issue this time is with the PIJ – but there are several factors that could drag Hamas into the fray, such as civilian casualties – optics that would force Hamas to assert its position as Gazans' protector.
Another major issue is Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, where any flare-up – related or unrelated to Tisha B'Av – would spark an immediate conflict that could also spur riots in the West Bank and unrest among Arab Israelis.
Then there is the northern sector. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is also itching for a conflict with Israel, given the maritime dispute between Israel and Lebanon, and the latter is home to several Palestinian groups that would not hesitate to fire on Israeli communities near the northern border.
IDF officials have gone on records as saying Operation Breaking Dawn is likely to last a week – barring dramatic developments or Hamas aggression. But the fact that both Israel and Hamas would prefer to avoid escalation guarantees nothing.
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