While the eyes of the whole world were fixed this week on the potential conflagration in Ukraine, the Israeli security services were mostly worried about what was happening in Jerusalem. Nearly a year after Operation Guardian of the Walls, it's hard to escape the feeling of déjà vu: once again there are clashes in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, once again the police are involved, once again Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, is fanning the flames, and once again Hamas is making its regular threats that Jerusalem is in danger.
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It's true that all the operational indicators are that a conflict in the Gaza Strip isn't on the cards, but that can also change in a moment; casualties during Friday prayers in a mosque can light the flames from Judea and Samaria to Gaza.
Some will immediately say: Hamas has no interest at this time in sparking a conflict in the south again. It is still reeling from May's conflict, and, despite the fact that talks to create calm (or a more permanent arrangement) are moving slowly and don't seem solvable at the moment, they are not rushing to turn on the engines. This is for many reasons, mainly intra-Palestinian, but the bottom line is that Hamas will do everything to fan the flames in Jerusalem or in Judea and Samaria, and if possible both of them together, but at the moment it will also do everything it can to keep Gaza quiet.
The current catalyst for the flare-up in Sheikh Jarrah was a series of violent and nationalist events targeting Jewish property, first and foremost the burning of vehicles and an attempt to set the house of a Jewish family living in the neighborhood on fire. Unlike in the past, this time the Israel Security Agency – Shin Bet – and the police took swifinto action, since they understood the explosive potential of these events – in a moment, a campaign can start on the internet, leading to violent events in the field, a deterioration in the situation, and there is a fear that this could turn into widespread violence.
The arson suspects were detained this week. At one of their homes, a Molotov cocktail was found, ready for use. This particular story seems closed, but the wider event is far from a solution. As always, professional troublemakers from both sides got involved. When it comes to Hamas, one can understand; it's a terror organization that looks for any opportunity to do evil. When it comes to Israelis, especially an MK, it's already unforgivable; in a place where logic and wisdom will calm things down, someone decided to play with fire.
Therefore, Prime Minister Bennett and Defense Minister Gantz quickly spoke publicly, in an attempt to cool the atmosphere. The IDF and the Shin Bet encouraged them to do so, in order to deliver three main messages. The first is that the situation is under control, and the Israeli government and its security services are in charge and not Ben-Gvir. The second is that Israel will protect its sovereignty in Jerusalem, but it has no intention of turning this into a dangerous and intensifying struggle. Third, the Palestinians are requested to stay out of events in Gaza and in Judea and Samaria.
The tactical approach to these events was also different from last year. Before Guardian of the Walls, the police made countless mistakes in the field, which instead of calming things down only made them worse. This time it operated quietly and intelligently; they dispersed the disturbances and riots without anyone being killed or injured. This should not be taken lightly: there is a big chance that casualties in Jerusalem will lead to trouble in the West Bank, and there's a small chance that it will lead to trouble in Gaza. Since Israel's main goal is avoiding this, the professional response to these events was vital.
However, despite this, everything is not under control. Hamas is investing a lot of energy in trying to set things off. It's harder than it was during the "Al Aqsa is in danger" struggle – as was heard last year during the events at the Damascus Gate – but the slogan "The Jews are controlling Jerusalem" can also lead extremists to take action. In the meantime, this isn't finding expression in a significant increase in alerts, but this doesn't mean that somewhere, sometimes a lone terrorist will get up and decide to act.
The security forces are ready for this. They are not anticipating a deterioration in Gaza, where, as mentioned, the risk is currently low, but the IDF is also prepared for this eventuality, with a team led by Brig, Gen. (res.) Moshe Tamir leading a change of thinking in the way in which the IDF will fight in the future, and will also be more prepared for developments in Judea and Samaria, and in Jerusalem.
Extinguishing different kinds of fires
There's been a storm in the West Bank over the last few months, with a number of violent events, most recently the assassination of the squad that carried out a series of terror attacks in the Shomron. The nature of the assassination was the result of operational considerations – when the intelligence was received that it was possible to capture (and if necessary to kill) most of the members of the squad at a certain time and in a certain place - but it also had a significant deterrent effect: the fact that it was carried out in the heart of Nablus, in the light of day, in front of many Palestinians, clearly delivered the message that the cliché that the war against terror can take place "at any time and in any place" is still active.
And still, the territory is stormy and explosive, as Brig. Gen. Avi Bluth, the commander of the Judea and Samaria Divisional Headquarters, warned this week. Naturally, he took things a few steps forward in order to prepare his forces, he's not mistaken about the big picture. What was surprising, perhaps, was the timing; in situational assessments and exercises that took place recently, the estimate was that the uptick in violence would only take place during Ramadan, which will begin in April.
The events in Sheikh Jarrah made the trouble start sooner. It also gave Israel a good opportunity to prepare itself for what might happen here in another two months. As always, Hamas will try to fan the flames, and as always it will find good partners on the Palestinian side: from bored youth in east Jerusalem to lots of desperate people in Judea and Samaria. You can also bet that on the Israeli side, too, there will be those who will show irresponsibility once again, and will help fan the flames.
In order to prevent this, Israel is taking a number of steps. On the political level, there is closer coordination than ever before with the Palestinian Authority and Abu Mazen, mostly led by President Herzog, Defense Minister Gantz, the Head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar, and the COGAT Coordinator Ghassan Alian. In parallel, sharp messages are being delivered by Bennett and his team (in the National Security Council and the Shin Bet) to Hamas, mainly via the Egyptians, that this time Israel will be less tolerant than in the past, and certainly won't allow a return to the policy of "dripping" rockets and incendiary balloons in the south – a stance that will certainly be put to the test in the future.
The events in Sheikh Jarrah, while Bennett was on his historic visit to Bahrain, illustrate the never-ending paradox of the Middle East, and the gap between the clouds of peace and its potential, and the daily and challenging reality in the field, particularly on the Palestinian front.
It's an important lesson: for Bahrain and the Emirates the Palestinians aren't so important, but for Israel, they are because they're here. Ignoring them won't lead to anything; it will only require extinguishing different kinds of fires. It's true that a peace agreement with the Palestinians isn't currently on the agenda – not in Judea and Samaria, and especially not in Gaza – but this reality requires intelligent management, a clear strategy that doesn't only see what's happening tomorrow morning but far further into the future than that.
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It's not clear to what extent this politically and ideologically complicated government, which is currently dealing with what's happening in Jerusalem, will be able to do this, but the effort has to be made. It would be good for it to do this now, a moment after the quiet has returned (one can hope) to Sheikh Jarrah, and a moment before Ramadan arrives, with all its joys and sorrows. It doesn't guarantee continued quiet, but it does reduce risks, as well as the possibility that this year as well the events in Jerusalem will lead to a conflict in Gaza.
