The dramatic events in Ukraine, coupled with Vladimir Putin's aggressive and defiant conduct in the international arena over the past two decades, is forcing decision-makers in the West to wonder about Russia's ultimate objectives and question Putin's ability to understand the diplomatic consequences of this belligerence on his country, and the entire world.
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Those who follow Russia are looking on with considerable concern at its massive military build-up and shift to more militant policies – whether within the post-Soviet sphere or toward members of NATO. Advanced weapons developments, conventional and non-conventional alike, have allowed the Kremlin to adopt an aggressive posture toward recalcitrant former Soviet bloc countries, such as Georgia and Ukraine, and even try to restore Russia's status as a global superpower that influences the international agenda.
Within the context of these efforts, the Russians have re-established a permanent presence in the Middle East and on Israel's northern border, and have reinstituted aerial and maritime patrols across the globe. Additionally, they are involved in several international areas of conflict and instability.
The deterioration of relations between Russia and Ukraine began with the "Orange Revolution" and the Ukrainians' desire to tether their future to the European Union and NATO, despite their previous commitments to Russia. The invasion of Ukraine, however, didn't stem strictly from the countries' tense relationship, rather from wider geopolitical factors such as NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe and the stationing of warning systems and missile batteries there.
Ukrainian aspirations and NATO's expansion eastward are extremely troubling to Putin as this directly threatens Russia's national security, which is partially predicated on the existence of a buffer zone of satellite states situated on the fault line between Eastern and Western Europe. It could also impede his efforts to restore Russia as a global power, alongside the United States and China.
It's unlikely, however, that he is capable of realizing his territorial aspirations and reincorporating those territories in Eastern Europe that were once part of the Soviet empire and now belong to NATO. Moreover, Russia's economic situation isn't particularly impressive, despite its natural wealth and multitude of mineral mines. In the long-term, this could impede Russia's path to returning to global prominence and also minimize its ability to maintain imperialist assets in Eastern Europe.
Russia's increasing military strength, Putin's prodigious experience in the diplomatic arena, and his arrogance, alongside the discernible weakness of the US – encouraged him to take larger risks in relation to Ukraine and a conflict with the West. As of now, there's no proof that his decision-making process is detached from the outside world, or that his judgment is impaired to the point of not understanding the significance of his decisions. The war in Ukraine is being waged in phases, and it appears the Russians are trying to mitigate the harm to the civilian population. More decisive policies from Western countries could deter Putin and prevent Russia's territorial expansion into Eastern Europe.
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